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ATP Metz
Norrie v Tien 1.64
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Tien 2-1. Most recent Oct 2025, hard, Tien in 2. He won on hard in Feb 2025, 2 sets. Norrie won on hard in Dec 2024, 2 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are better for Norrie. Tien leads in 2025.

Norrie reached the Final last season. 3 sets win over Royer in the 1st round as slight favourite. 3 sets win over Cazaux in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets against Jacquet in the Q final. 3 sets win over Sonego in the semi final.
3rd round in Paris. 2nd rounds in Vienna and Dallas.

Tien had an easy win over Blanchet in the 1st round. 2 tight sets win in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Berrettini as slight underdog in the Q final. Easy win over Sachko in the semis.
He reached the 2nd round in Paris. Reached the Final of the Next Gen Finals in Dec. CH final and semi final in Nov.

12 month indoor stats favour Norrie overall. 2025 stats favour Tien. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Tien around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match Prediction: Tien in 3 sets

Update: There were no break points in the first 3 games. Norrie served at 1-2 and was broken to 30. I laid Tien at 1.36 but kept liability low as I was going against my favoured player.

Tien’s next 2 service games were holds to 30. He served for the set at 5-3. He faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged at 1.56. Tien recovered to hold and to take the set.

I laid Tien at the start of the second set. I laid at 1.31.

The first 3 games of the set were holds. Tien served at 1-2. He went 30-40 down. I removed almost all my liability at 1.60. Tien saved the break point and saved another 4 break points before finally being broken.

Norrie followed up the break with a hold to 0 and I hedged evenly at 2.12 on Tien’s ladder. There were no more break points in the set.

In the third set, Tien took a 3-0 lead. He led 4-1 but Norrie recovered to 4-4. They ended up in a tie break. Norrie led the tie break 5-1 but it was Tien who eventually took the tie break 8-6.

Tien won 6-3, 3-6, 7-6.

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