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WTA Chennai
Tjen 1.49 v Birrell
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are better for Tjen.

Tjen needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.07 favourite. 3 sets win over Fruhvirtova in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final. 2 tie breaks win over Tararudee in the Semi final.
She won a CH title in Oct. Final in Sao Paolo. 2nd round of the US Open.

Birrell had a 3 sets win in the 1st round as slight favourite. Easy win in the 2nd round. Easy win over Vekic in the q final. 3 sets win over Garland in the Semi final.
She reached 2nd rounds in Cincinnati, Miami, Indian Wells and Austin. Quarter finals in Brisbane.

12 month and 2025 stats are stronger for Tjen.
Birrell had served well for 2 sets but then went 0-5 down in the 3rd set with Garland. Birrell then took the next 7 games. Garland was affected but the tough conditions and collapsed in the 3rd set.
Fair chance of 3 sets. Birrell was on court almost 3.5 hours yesterday.
Back Tjen around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Tjen in 3 sets

Update: * I did not trade this match. I have rules and tactics that I follow based on the match situation that I will apply to this match.

Tjen broke serve in the first game. As I expected a close match, I would have laid her. In the next game, Tjen went 30-40 behind and I’d have removed some of my liability. She saved 2 break points in that game but recovered to hold serve.

In Tjen’s next service game, she faced and saved 7 break points. In her next service game, she went 15-40 behind and I would have hedged evenly.

Tjen broke to 0 in the next game. She led 4-3. I would have had 2 possible choices at this stage. As I had a little profit, I could have laid Tjen. Alternatively, as they were potentially a couple of games away from the end of the set, I could have stayed out and waited for set 2. I would have based my choice on what I was seeing on court. It is difficult to make that choice based on a point by point record. It is most likely that I would not have laid at this score as I favoured Tjen to win the match.

The next 2 games were holds. Tjen served for the set at 5-4. She went 30-40 behind. I would have hedged my position if I had laid after the previous break of serve. Tjen recovered to hold ad to take the set.

Birrell served first in set 2. I would have waited for her to have her service game before I laid Tjen. Birrell was broken in the first game. I would have laid Tjen who was now a set and a break ahead. This is usually an excellent time to enter.

Tjen held easily to lead 2-0. Birrell was broken again in the next game and I would have exited. My position could vary based on stakes used for each trade but I am likely to have been around break even.

Birrell did get one of the breaks back. She served at 3-5 and was broken to 30.

Tjen won 6-4, 6-3.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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