The Final

Sinner (1.62) v Hurkacz (2.58)

Due to start at 6 pm.

This will be their first meeting.

Overall win percentages are stronger for Sinner. Hurkacz has more hard court experience. Sinner has won 24 of his 35 matches (68%). Hurkacz has won 34 of his last 50 on hard courts (68%). They are very even in 2021. Sinner won 12 of 14 and Hurkacz won 12 of 15.

Sinner has lost 2 sets this week. His toughest match was the 3 sets win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the semi final. He has served pretty well this week. Bautista Agut broke him 3 times in 3 sets. He has huge ground strokes but the slightly slower playing surface this week is making him to try to hit even harder. He has hit some amazing passing shots but occasionally goes for too much power too close to the lines. That almost cost him the semi final against a very consistent opponent.

Hurkacz has also lost 2 sets in the tournament. Those sets were against Milos Raonic in the third round and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarter final. In the semi final he beat a disappointing Andrey Rublev in straight sets. He also had a straight sets win over Denis Shapovalov as underdog in the second round. Hurkacz has a much higher ROI on hard courts.

Stats for the tournament favour Sinner for everything except service holds. Hurkacz leads that stat 90% v 85%. Hopefully this will be a better final than the women’s final yesterday. The sets are going to be tight. the value is on Hurkacz. He has won his last 5 finals. The 2 most recent were on the main tour. Sinner has won 5 of his last 6 finals. The last 2 were on the main tour. This is the first ATP1000 final for both players.

Time spent on court won’t be an advantage to either player. Sinner has spent 557 minutes and Hurkacz 555 minutes on the court.

We have a decent chance of this going to 3 sets. I’m giving a slight edge to Hurkacz to win.

Lay Sinner around 1.40 and remove or reduce your liability at 1.80. Lay the winner of the first set.

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I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

   

The Final

Ashleigh Barty (157) v Bianca Andreescu (2.72)

Due to start at 6 pm

This will be the first time they have met.

Long term overall win percentages are superb for both players. Barty has won 40 of her last 50 matches and Andreescu won 42 of 50. Barty has better results this season.

Andreescu missed all the 2020 season through injury and Barty only played 3 tournaments in 2020. They brought her the title in Adelaide and semi finals at the Australian Open and Doha in January and February.

Barty has spent less time on court in the tournament. Two hours and 40 mins less. She has needed a deciding set in 3 of her 5 matches. In the last round she beat Elina Svitolina in 2 sets in 89 minutes in a surprisingly one sided encounter. Barty beat Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets in the quarter final. She faced 7 break points in that match and saved them all. In the third round she easily took the first set from Victoria Azarenka 6-1 and it looked like being a very one sided match. However in set 2 it was Azarenka’s turn to win 6-1. Barty took the third set 6-2. She faced 10 break chances in the match and was broken 3 times.

Andreescu took 162 minutes to beat Maria Sakkari in a third set tie break in the semi final. In fact both her sets were taken in tie breaks. She beat Tereza Martincova in 2 sets in the first round but has needed 3 sets in the other 4 rounds. Perhaps her most impressive win was over Garbine Muguruza in the third round. She lost the opening set but recovered well. To be fair Muguruza didn’t play well in the deciding set and Andreescu took it easily.

Serve stats for the tournament are stronger for Barty. Their return stats are pretty even. We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets. Andreescu will give everything she has and it should be a great final. I favour Barty to win but wait for a price above 2.00. Lay the winner of the first set.

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.