Using the Match Picks on this Site

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

I sometimes get asked how do you remove the liability. Look at this example.

Trading ladder

At that moment I had £932 liability/risk on Kasatkina. I have had a significant price move in my favour and can hedge evenly for £430.

If I wanted to remove that liability/risk on Kasatkina then I need to lay Rybakina for £932. That would leave me with £0 on Kasatkina.

If you only wanted to REDUCE the liability then adjust the size of the lay on Rybakina. If I wanted to reduce the liability on Kasatkina to £400 then I would lay £532 on Rybakina’s ladder.

   
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ATP Nur-Sultan: Norrie v Thompson

First round

Norrie (1.64) v Thompson (2.52)

Due to start around 1:30 pm

Norrie lead their previous matches 3-1. They last met in July 2019 in Atlanta, USA. Norrie won in 3 sets on a hard court. All their matches were on hard courts.

Head to head info
Head to head info from Tennis Insight

Overall results are a little better for Norrie. Long term indoor results are better for Thompson but Norrie has been better in the last year.

Norrie reached the quarter finals in St Petersburg this month. He kept his match with Raonic really close last week losing 7-5, 7-6. He was only broken once. He reached the third round at the US Open beating Schwartzman in the first round.

Thompson reached the quarter finals in New York indoors in February. He had some excellent indoor results in Challenger tournaments in 2018 but had had very little indoor success on the main tour. He reached the fourth round at the US Open in August but has won just 1 of his 5 matches since then. He was pre match favourite in 2 of those losses.

I favour Norrie to take this one. Back him around 1.95 to 2.1.

Update: Norrie was broken first and his price hit 2.40. He immediately broke back. He went on to break again and took the set. In the second set he was broken first and again broke straight back. The set went to a tie break. Norrie led 5-4 and was serving. He lost the tie break. He fell apart in the third set.
Thompson won 5-7, 7-6, 6-2.

I sometimes get questions about whether these picks are intended to be left to run. The name of the site strongly suggests that this is NOT the case. I aim to give a value entry to the match. After that you manage your position. The easiest way to do that is as follows.

If we get our target entry price we can remove or reduce our liability/risk after a significant price move in our favour. That is usually if they get a break of serve or sometimes if they get a break point. If our player gets broken then we can exit.

   
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