Djokovic 1.29 v Kyrgios 4.30

Due to start at 2 pm

Kyrgios 2-0. Most recent Mar 2017, hard, 2 sets. He won again in 2017, hard, 2 sets. All their sets were close.

Overall win %’s and grass win %’s are stronger for Djokovic. Djokovic won 47 of his last 50 on grass.

In this tournament Djokovic needed 4 sets in 3 matches and 5 sets against Sinner in the q final. He dropped the first set in the last 2 rounds.

Kyrgios needed 5 sets against Jubb in the 1st round and also against Nakashima in the 4th round. He had treatment for a shoulder problem in that match. He then beat Garin in straight sets in the q final. He got a walkover in the semi final when Nadal withdrew. This is his 1st slam final. He will have some nerves but will give us the full Kyrgios experience. He will try to get under Djokovic’s skin.

Lay Djokovic around 1.20 to 1.25 and remove liab at 1.55. I expect Kyrgios to take at least a set. If he can keep focused he can push Djokovic all the way. Lay set 1 winner.

 

Rybakina 2.34 v Jabeur 1.74

Due to start at 2 pm

Jabeur leads their previous matches 2-1. Most recent Oct 2021, hard court, Jabeur, won when Rybakina retired. Jabeur won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Rybakina won on hard in 2019, 3 sets.

Overall win %’s and grass win %’s are better for Jabeur. She reached the quarter finals last season. Jabeur needed 3 sets in the last 2 rounds. 

Rybakina reached the 4th round last season. She beat Halep in the last round in straight sets. Halep had a really poor match and faced bp’s in every service game in the opening set. 

Stats for the tournament favour Jabeur. Stats for their last 10 on grass are stronger for Jabeur. 12 month grass stats favour Jabeur and she has the higher predicted service hold %.

Good chance of 3 sets. Back Jabeur around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Jabeur was in total control of the first set. She broke in the 3rd game to lead 2-1. She broke again to take the set 6-3. She didn’t face a single break point in that set.

Jabeur served first in set 2 and was broken. Rybakina faced a bp in the next game but held for a 2-0 lead. When Rybakina served at 2-1, she faced 3 break points but Jabeur couldn’t take any of them. Jabeur was then broken in the next game. Rybakina was serving better than she had in the first set but Jabeur had a very poor set.

In set 3, Jabeur was broken in the first game. The next 4 games were holds of serve. Rybakina served at 3-2 and went 0-40 down. It looked like Jabeur had sorted her head out and was now going to take the set but she could not take the break chances. Jabeur had choked when she had the chance to take a slam title. She was broken in the next game and Rybakina held on to take the set and the title.

Rybakina won 3-6, 6-2, 6-2.