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Bogota Challenger
Ficovich v Alves 1.75
Due to start at 8 pm
Confidence rating: 7/10

Ficovich 1-0 (Oct 2024, clay, 3rd set tie break). Clay win %’s are a little better for Alves.

Ficovich reached the q final last year. CH semi in July. 2 CH finals in March. 2 CH q finals in Feb.

Alves reached a CH q final in Oct. ITF title in Sep. CH q final in April.

12 month and 2025 CH stats are stronger for Alves on serve.
Lay Ficovich around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match Prediction: Alves in 3 sets.

Update: Alves was broken to 0 in the first game. I laid Ficovich at 1.65.

There were no break points in the next 4 games. Ficovich led 3-2. In his next service game, he went behind at 0-15. The match was stopped for heavy rain. I exited at 1.59 for a tiny loss. The match was delayed for over an hour. When they resumed, there were no break points in the rest of the set.

As there had been just 1 break of serve which had been in the first game of the match, I stayed with my pre match assessment and laid Ficovich at 1.34 at the start of set 2. Alves went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold. There were no break points in the next 4 games. As usual, if I laid the set 1 winner and the set 2 score reaches 4-4, I exit. Alves led 3-2.

In the next game, Ficovich went 15-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.67. Ficovich saved the first break point but was broken. I removed the rest of my liability at 1.96 and left the green on Alves. He was taken to deuce in the next game so when he held, I hedged evenly at 2.12.

Alves took the set and his price dropped to 1.74 (2.30 on Ficovich). The first 2 sets were decided by a single break so I did not enter in the 3rd set. That was also decided by a single break of serve for Ficovich. They each had a break point in the set.

Ficovich won 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.