Krejcikova 2.28 v Badosa 1.76

Due to start at 6 am

Badosa 2-0. Most recent Oct 2021, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Win percentages on hard slightly favour Krejcikova.

Badosa has lost just 1 set this week. That was against Bencic in the quarter final. She had a surprisingly comfortable win over Kasatkina in the last round. As expected, Kasatkina could not repeat her level of play from the previous round where she beat Muguruza in straight sets.

Krejcikova was very poor in the 1st set with Kontaveit in the semi final. She struggled on serve and did not win a game in that set. She improved in set 2 and a late break gave her the chance to serve for the set which she did successfully. She took the 3rd set and the match in a very long tie break.

Stats for the tournament favour Badosa for everything except service holds. Stats for their last 10 hard matches also favour Badosa for everything except service holds. Good chance of 3 sets.

Back Badosa around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Badosa broke serve in the first game of the match. Krejcikova broke back for 2-2. Two more breaks for Badosa gave her the set. I laid Badosa after the set.

Krejcikova broke serve in the first game of the set. I removed some liability. Badosa broke back for 3-3. Krejcikova broke for 5-4 lead and easily served out the set. I hedged.

In the deciding set, Badosa broke first for a 2-0 lead. She was immediately broken back. There would be no more breaks. In the tie break, Krejcikova won the first mini break but 3 mini breaks for Badosa put her in control. She took the set and the match.

Badosa won 6-3, 4-6, 7-6.

 

This is a quarter final match and is due to start at midnight.

Kontaveit 1.69, Jabeur 2.38

Jabeur leads their previous matches 3-1. They last met in Indian Wells in October last year. Jabeur won on a hard court in straight sets. She also won on a hard court in Cincinnati in August, though that one went to 3 sets. She has won their last 3 matches.

Long term hard win percentages and 12 month win percentages are even. Jabeur has the higher ROI. Stats for their last 10 on hard are close but favour Jabeur.

Jabeur came through a tough 2 sets match with Kvitova in the last round. She was broken 3 times. Her first serve was strong but her second points won were average at 44%. She has easily beaten Sharma in the first round for the loss of just 4 games.

Kontaveit has had 2 fairly comfortable matches although she was broken at the start of her match with Ruse. She went a break behind twice in that first set but won 4 games in a row to take it.

This should be a good match, though in a way it’s a shame it comes just before the Australian Open. I still think they are both going to be motivated to go for the win.

Lay Kontaveit around 1.45 and remove some or all liability liab at 1.90. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: We did get our 1.45 quite early in the match. Unfortunately, Betfair didn’t turn the market in play and any lay place before they turned the market in play was voided. However after the market WAS turned in play, Kontaveit broke serve to give us the entry price again. Jabeur immediately broke back and we got our exit price when she went 30-0 up in the next game.

Jabeur was broken again and Kontaveit served out the set after saving 2 bp’s. Jabeur called an MTO and retired. Bets stand as the first set was complete. Unfortunately I had left a free bet on Jabeur! If you hedged at 1.90, then well done!

Kontaveit won 6-4 (ret)