Semi Final

Djokovic (1.35) v Tsitsipas (3.8)

Due to start at 4 pm

Head to heads are 3-3. The last time they met was in the final in Dubai in February this year. Djokovic won in straight sets on a hard court. He won their only previous clay match in the Madrid final in 2019. he won in straight sets.

Overall results favour Djokovic in the last 12 months. Both are very strong on clay.

Tsitsipas came back from 2 sets down in the first round against Jaume Munar. He has not lost a set since. I had expected Cuevas, Dimitrov and especially Rublev to at least take sets from him. He was broken twice in those 3 matches.

Djokovic lost the first set in the last round against Carreno Busta. He was having a problem with his neck and had an MTO during that opening set. All 4 sets were very tight. If Djok has a physical issue then that long tight match will not have helped him.

Lay Djokovic around 1.25 and remove some or all liability at 1.50. Lay the set 1 winner.

Djokovic probably wins but its going to be a tough match and I think Tsitsipas can push him all the way.

 

Quarter Final

Collins (2.5) v Kenin (1.65)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Collins has won all 3 of their previous matches. The last time they met was on a hard court in Adelaide in January. Collins won comfortably in straight sets. All their matches were on hard courts and ended in 2 sets.

Overall results are a little better for Kenin although Collins has the higher ROI. Long term clay results favour Collins. She also has a slight lead in the last 12 months and in 2020.

Collins has only had one straight sets win in this tournament though has been underdog in every round. She took a while to find her timing in the first round against Monica Niculescu and lost the opening set but easily took the next 2 sets. In the third round she started strongly against Garbine Muguruza and took a close opening set. She was 3-0 down in the third set before she fought back to take 6 of the next 7 games. Ons Jabeur didn’t make a great start in their fourth round meeting and Collins was a set and 3-0 up before Jabeur started to play better tennis. In their deciding set Collins was twice a break behind in a messy set that saw 7 of the 10 games being breaks of serve.

Kenin has also only won one of her matches in straight sets. She really struggled at the start of her match with Ana Bogdan in their second round clash. She also lost the opening set to Fiona Ferro in the fourth round but easily took the next 2 sets for the loss of just 3 games. She made the fourth round last year so has improved on that.

There is a very good chance that this goes to 3 sets. Stats for the tournament favour Kenin. I give Collins the edge as she has beaten stronger opponents.

Lay Kenin around 1.45 and remove some or all your liability at 1.90. Lay the set 1 winner.