Daily match picks

Daily match tips

Davis Cup Semi Final: Great Britain v Spain

Kyle Edmund 1.80, Pablo Carreno Busta 2.00

(Prices from Pinnacle. No Betfair market open when I wrote this)

Due to start at 6 pm.

Carreno Busta won their only previous meeting. That was at the Australian Open in January 2017. He won in straight sets.

Overall results favour Carreno Busta this season. Indoor results also favour him.

Edmund has won both his matches this week in 2 sets. He saved all 4 of the break points that he faced against Kukushkin and was broken just once by Kohlschreiber. He reached the third round at the Paris open last month.

Kyle Edmund
Kyle Edmund – Photo Sport Mole

Carreno Busta has played just 1 match this week which was in the quarter final against Argentina. He lost to Pella in 3 sets. He had some excellent results indoors in September and October.

On paper Carreno Busta perhaps should start as favourite but Edmund has really raised his level this week after a poor season. He is likely to go into this match with Great Britain 1-0 down as I don’t see Rafael Nadal losing to Dan Evans. That puts some pressure on Edmund’s shoulders but I expect him to react well. Back him around 2.10.

Update: Just before the match Spain replaced Carreno Busta with Feliciano Lopez. Edmund beat him in straight sets. Switching players is a reason I didn’t like the old format of the Davis Cup. It hasn’t happened often this week.

    Trading Guide

Davis Cup Quarter Final: Great Britain v Germany

Kyle Edmund 1.70, Philipp Kohlschreiber 2.38

Due to start at 4:30 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Overall results are better for Kohlschreiber in 2019. His indoor results are also a little better this year.

Edmund has had a poor season He has really struggled to find any sort of consistency but has found some form late in the year. He reached the 3rd round at the Paris Masters last month and beat Mikhail Kukushkin in straight sets this week.

Kohlschreiber started really slowly against Guido Pella in his first match of the week but recovered to take the match in 3 sets. he also beat Nicolas Jarry in 2 sets. He has also struggled for consistency and stepped down to Challenger level in September and played 3 tournaments on clay. Getting a few wins under his belt must have helped his confidence.

Kyle Edmund – Photo Tennis365

We have a decent chance that this goes to 3 sets. Both players have served well this week. Some value on Kohlschreiber but I think Edmund takes this.

Lay Kohlschreiber around 1.70 and remove the liability at 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Edmund never traded higher than SP. He won the first set. if you laid him after the set you would have had a chance to take profit when Kohlschreiber took a 3-1 lead. Edmund broke him straight back and went on to won the set.
Edmund won 6-3, 7-5.

    Trading Guide

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