Davis Cup Final 2011 – Sunday

Argentina won the doubles yesterday to make the match score 2-1 to Spain.

Nadal is first up for Spain and will most likely play Del Potro. There was talk that Nalbandian may play Nadal but as Monaco hurt his wrist it looks more likely that Nalbandian may be needed to play Ferrer.

Nadal is 1.11 against Del Potro who had a marathon 5 setter with Ferrer on Friday. Nadal leads the head to heads 7-3 and he is on his favourite surface.

Del Potro played a couple of decent sets against Ferrer and when his big ground strokes were hitting the lines and corners he looked like he had a good chance of taking the win. Is he able to produce that sort of tennis for 3 sets against Nadal? Its possible. I don’t think this will be over in 3 sets but its so difficult to expect Nadal to lose at home on clay. Added into the mix is the fact that a Nadal win will secure the Davis Cup for Spain.

Del Potro in a way has nothing to lose. No one expects him to win and as long as he puts up a fight he won’t lose face. That may just free him up to go for  everything. Not needing to play percentage shots could unleash his full power and if that happens Nadal may wobble.

Update: I think it’s  fair to say that Nadal wobbled! He didn’t hold his serve at all in  the first set and having broken Del Potro’s serve in the very first game he then lost 6 games in a row!.

In the second set Del potro broke in the first game. Nadal broke back and then held his own serve for the first time in the match.

Nadal took that second set and breezed through the third. In the fourth set Del potro served for the set at 5-3 but was broken. Nadal then served for the match at 6-5 but was broken. In the end Nadsl won the set and the match in a tie break that he won 7-0.

Nadal won 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6.

 

The second match will have Ferrer against either Monaco or David Nalbandian.

Most likely to be Monaco unless his wrist is a problem. Monaco leads the head to heads 4-3. They played twice in 2011 with Monaco winning on a hard court and Ferrer winning on clay. Both matches went to 3 sets. In their last 4 matches Monaco won the first set.

At the end of a long season anything can happen. Monaco has acquired a taste for the big matches in recent months and this could be one of the biggest if Argentina manage to level the tie in the day’s first match.

If the tie has already gone to Spain by the time this starts then Ferrer wins as whether its Monaco or Nalbandian who plays they will have to deal with the huge disappointment and Ferrer can relax and enjoy himself.

Ferrer starts at 1.27 which seems low considering Monaco’s record in first sets against him.

Perhaps best to wait for a better price on Ferrer. In reality this match will be meaningless when Nadal seals the tie.

Update: I don’t often trade Davis Cup and was surprised that this match was cancelled when Nadal secured the win for the Spaniards. All the people who bought tickets for the later session won’t have been very pleased!

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