Davis Cup Final – Spain v Argentina (Friday)

Well here we go for the last bit of tennis for this season. That is apart from the Aegon Masters seniors event that starts this evening. Liquidity was a little better last year so might be worth a look later.

With Davis Cup it can be frustrating when the players are changed just before the match starts but as its the Final i would guess that any player would have to be dragged kicking and screaming off court!

Spain are the home team and as they have Nadal, Ferrer, Lopez and Verdasco it’s no surprise that they have chosen to play on clay.

 

Nadal v Monaco:

They have played each other three times and whilst Monaco won their last match it was due to a Nadal retirement. Nadal won both their other matches which were both on clay. They haven’t played since 2007.

Nadal has been far from his best and failed to qualify for the semi finals in London last week. Even so, playing in the Final in front of his home crowd on his best surface you have to agree with the market prices that have him as a massive favourite.

Monaco has had the best season of his career and was one of the top players in the last few weeks of the season. He is well rested and will be motivated to give everything for his country but you feel he would need Nadal to be carrying some sort of injury to give him a realistic chance of a win.

1.07 for Nadal seems way too low even for the King of Clay and monaco will prove a tricky opponent.

Its a cheap enough lay at that price but a fit Nadal will take this easily.

 

Ferrer v Del Potro:

This one should be much more even.  Ferrer is another player who has had the best season of his career reaching the world number 5 spot. He played some great tennis at the Tour Finals and reached the semi finals.

Head to heads are 2-2 with Del Potro winning their last 2 matches but they have never played on clay.

Del Potro has had a tough return from injury this season and whilst we have seen some of the huge ground strokes that are his trademark he hasn’t been at full fitness. He also injured his knee in practice last weekend which is said to be minor but it is another thing for him to worry about.

Ferrer has had plenty of time to rest after the Tour Finals and on his favourite surface and playing at home you would expect him to be able to grind down Del Potro over 5 sets. Even the Argentinian’s big serve won’t be effective on these courts against a player who will chase down every ball.

Maybe 4 sets but Ferrer will take this.

(1.60)

 

 

 

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