Davis Cup Final – Sunday

Edit: I was hoping they wouldn’t do this. Often in Davic cup the teams change which players they put out. Stepanek has been pulled and replaced with Hajek.  The change only happened a short time ago and the new market hasn’t had time to take much money.

Also Berdych has been pulled from the other game and replaced with Dlouhy. Again there’s no money in the market.

 

Disappointing way to end the last event of the season. Looks like we’re on the football this afternoon!

 

11:00 – Nadal v Stepanek

 

Rankings are 2 and 12. Head to heads are 4-0 to Nadal although they haven’t played since 2005.

 

The Spanish have already won the final so Stepanek is playing for pride only. Nadal is playing infront of his home crowd having helped his country to a 3-0 lead and his confidence will have taken a boost.

 

Nadal is 1.16 on the match odds market. In his last match I used the set market to back him to win 3-0 and traded out after the first set. At the time of posting (9am) there is virtually no money matched on that market.

 

If Stepanek can keep his head up, which I think he will, the first set could be close and Nadal’s price will trade higher than 1.16 . That gives us the option of laying Nadal from the start. Liability will be low and even if Nadal breaks early we can trade out for a fairly small loss. However if Stepanek can keep it close or better still get a break we can green up for a profit.

 

I can’t see Nadal losing this one at home.

 

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13:30 – Ferrer v Berdych

 

Rankings are 18 and 20. Head to heads are 4-2 to Ferrer.

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Ferrer started his last match like someone who hadn’t played before. He didn’t hold his serve at all in the first set and when he was 2 sets down it looked to be all over. Amazingly he came back to win the match 8-6 in the 5th set. A big part of that comeback must surely have been due to him playing infront of a Spanish crowd.

 

Berdych played well in the first set against Nadal despite losing serve in the first game. He immediately broke back and had chances for a further break. However having lost the first set he crumbled and offered little or no resistance to Nadal. I think he is the player most likely to give up if things aren’t going his way.

 

Ferrer is favourite for this one. There is virtually no money matched on the game so far but the money will pile in before the start. Keep an eye on that though.

 

15-40 or scalping will be the best way to trade it. If Ferrer gets his nose in front he won’t look back. I expect Berdych to crumble if he loses the first set but he may prove me wrong.

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