Kyle Edmund 1.80, Pablo Carreno Busta 2.00
(Prices from Pinnacle. No Betfair market open when I wrote this)
Due to start at 6 pm.
Carreno Busta won their only previous meeting. That was at the Australian Open in January 2017. He won in straight sets.
Overall results favour Carreno Busta this season. Indoor results also favour him.
Edmund has won both his matches this week in 2 sets. He saved all 4 of the break points that he faced against Kukushkin and was broken just once by Kohlschreiber. He reached the third round at the Paris open last month.
Carreno Busta has played just 1 match this week which was in the quarter final against Argentina. He lost to Pella in 3 sets. He had some excellent results indoors in September and October.
On paper Carreno Busta perhaps should start as favourite but Edmund has really raised his level this week after a poor season. He is likely to go into this match with Great Britain 1-0 down as I don’t see Rafael Nadal losing to Dan Evans. That puts some pressure on Edmund’s shoulders but I expect him to react well. Back him around 2.10.
Update: Just before the match Spain replaced Carreno Busta with Feliciano Lopez. Edmund beat him in straight sets. Switching players is a reason I didn’t like the old format of the Davis Cup. It hasn’t happened often this week.