20:00 – Tipsarevic v Del Potro
Rankings are 52 and 236. Head to heads are 1-0 to Del Potro.
Del Potro is at 1.25 on Betfair. Even if DP is back to his best those odds seem too low. Tipsarevic often performs well against big servers. Since August last year he has beaten Roddick, Querrey, Berdych and Karlovic (this week).
They have both held serve over 90% of the time this week. Del Potro’s return stats are better than Tipsarevic’s.
Backing on serve isn’t really an option as the starting price is too low. An early lay of DP on Tipsarevic’s first service game will give us a decent entry point. If Tipsarevic can continue to hold up to a tie break we can get out for a profit as the market will rise a little. Also as he does well against big servers we have a chance of a Tipsarevic break.
The ideal scenario is for Tipsarevic to win the first set so we can green up on the lay and then back Del Potro.
I expect Del Potro to take the title, probably in 3 sets.
Update: Tipsarevic took an early 4-1 lead in the first set but Del Potro took the next 5 games to take the set. DP took the second set and the title 6-4, 6-4.