WTA Challenger Mallorca Garcia v Bejlek 1.47 Due to start at 2:30 pm Confidence rating 7/10
Garcia 1-0 (Aug 2024, walkover). Clay win %’s are better for Bejlek.
Garcia beat Zidansek in 2 sets as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Semenistaja as underdog in the 2nd round. CH semi in Sep. She plays mostly ITF’s.
Bejlek needed a 3rd set tie break in the 1st round as 1.02 favourite. Easy win in the 2nd round. CH title last week. CH title in June. 2nd round of the French Open. 2 CH semis in Nov.
Garcia has had some ITF success. She hit her best ranking at the age of 30 (this year). Chance of 3 sets. Back Bejlek around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55.
Paolini 1-0 (Sep 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are close but favour Paolini.
Paolini reached the Quarter final last year. She needed 3 sets against Yuan in the 2nd round. 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Final in Cincinnati 2025, Semi finals in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025.
Tauson had a 2 sets win over Danilovic in the 1st round. Easy win over Ruzic in the 2nd round. She reached the Semi finals in Montreal 2025, Final in Dubai 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Title in Auckland 2025, Quarter finals in Osaka 2024.
12 month and 2025 stats are a little better for Tauson on serve. Return stats favour Paolini. Stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Paolini. Decent chance of 3 sets. Back Paolini around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
Update: ** I was involved in another match so did not trade this match. Paolini struggled on serve in the first set. She was broken in the 3rd game. I would have backed her. She had a break back point in the next game where we could have removed some liability. Tauson recovered to hold. In the 7th game, she again struggled on serve. She was not broken but if I had traded this one, I would have hedged for the loss and waited for set 2. Tauson broke again to take the set.
I’d have laid Tauson at the start of the second set. Tauson served first in set 2. She was broken. I’d have removed a little liability. Paolini was broken in the next game. I’d have left the position as it was. Tauson was broken again in the third game. This time, Paolini held to lead 3-1. Paolini held serve this time. Tauson then had an off court medical time out. After that, she struggled.
Paolini took the set 6-1. Tauson retired at 1-3 in the third set.
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