Free Tennis Tips

US Open
Brooksby v Cobolli 1.64
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Brooksby 1-0 (May 2022, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are quite even.

Brooksby had a 5 sets win over Vukic in the 1st round. He reached the 3rd round in Cincinnati. 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2025.

Cobolli reached the 3rd round last season. 5 sets win over Passaro in the 1st round. 4th Round in Toronto 2025, Quarter finals in Beijing 2024.

12 month and 2025 stats favour Cobolli on serve.
Back Cobolli around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner. 4 or 5 sets.

Update: Cobolli made hard work of almost every service game in the first set. He was broken in the 3rd game. Brooksby then held to lead 3-1. I backed Cobolli. He broke back to get to 4-4. As we were close to the end of the set and he wasn’t serving well, I hedged evenly.

Cobolli was broken again serving at 5-5. Brooksby successfully served for the set.

Cobolli served first in set 2. He had not been impressive on serve in that first set but as I had some green from the set, I laid Brooksby with part stake. Cobolli was broken in the first game of the 2nd set.

When a player is a set and a break ahead, it is an excellent time to lay them. The price is good and they often relax a little and let their opponent back into the set. Cobolli was also my pre match pick to win so I added to my lay of Brooksby.

Brooksby held easily to lead 2-0. Cobolli had another tough service game but held. He then easily broke Brooksby in the next game to get back to 2-2. Cobolli held to 0 in the next game! Maybe things were changing. I removed most of my liability, leaving the green on Cobolli.

Brooksby was broken again in the next game and Cobolli held to love to get to 5-2. No more breaks in the set which Cobolli won 6-3. I hedged evenly.

I was not involved in the match again until Cobolli was serving for the match in the 5th set. I laid Cobolli and he was broken. He took the set and the match in a tie break.

Cobolli won 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (3)

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ATP US Open
Darderi 1.64 v Spizzirri
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are better for Spizzirri.

Darderi lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Hijikata in the 1st round. 3rd round in Winston Salem.

Spizzirri lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. 3 tight sets win in the 1st round. 3 CH semis in Aug/July. CH title in March. CH final in Oct.

12 month and 2025 stats favour Darderi on serve. 4 sets.
Back Darderi around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner.

Update:

Darderi took the first set 6-0. That’s the best way to kill the price! He won the next set too. Spizzirri won set 3 and Darderi won the 4th set.

We did not get the target price. Please note that in best of 5 set matches, laying the player who is 2 sets up can work well as they often relax and let the 3rd set slip away from them.

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