Trading Tip – Bergamo Challenger
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Bergamo Challenger
Topo v Choinski (start price 1.64)
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating: 7.5/10
Choinski 1-0 (Sep 2025, clay, 3rd set tie break). Indoor win %’s favour Choinski.
Topo has very little indoor success. Most of his wins were in qual rounds.
Choinski reached a CH q final in March. CH q final in Nov 2024.
Recent performances are better for Choinski.
Back Choinski around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
Match prediction: Choinski in 2 sets.
Update: Tight match with just 1 break of serve! This match is a good example of why trading is often a much better option than a straight punt.
Topo served first and faced a break point but he recovered to hold. The next 4 games were easy holds.
Choinski served at 2-3. He went 15-30 behind and I backed him at 2.00. He faced a break point at 30-40 but recovered to hold. Topo then held to 30. After Choinski held to 0 to get to 4-4, his lay price hit 1.64 and I removed all my liability to leave a free bet on Choinski.
The next 3 games were holds of serve. When Choinski served at 5-6, he faced a break point/set point but recovered to hold. They went to a tie break. Tiebreaks are near impossible to predict so I hedged evenly at 1.71. Topo took the tie break 7-3.
Choinski doesn’t have a good record of recovering after losing the first set. In fact, in the last 12 months, he has never taken the 2nd set indoors after losing the first set. He was serving first in the 2nd set so I waited for him to have his service game before laying Topo. Choinski was broken to 0. I had the option of walking away or trying a lay of Topo. As I had some profit from the first set, I placed a lay on Topo at 1.16. Topo was a set and a break ahead which can be an excellent entry point. Good value and the leading player often relaxes a little.
I planned on giving Choinski 3 chances to put some pressure on the Topo serve.
Topo held to 0. In the next game, Choinski faced 2 break points but managed to hold. In Topo’s next service game, he was taken to deuce but held. Choinski’s 3rd service game of the set saw him face yet another break point. Again, he recovered to hold. Perhaps Topo might get a little frustrated.
Topo served at 3-2 and faced a break point. I hedged at 1.24 . It was the first break point that Choinski had earned since the first game of the match and I was not confident that he would take it. He didn’t take it. There were no more break points in the set.
Topo won 7-6, 6-4.
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