FREE Tennis Trading Tip. ATP Kitzbuhel – Baez v Gaston
Quarter Final
Baez 1.44 v Gaston 3.20
Due to start at 2:30 pm
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Baez 1-0 (Nov 2021, indoors, 3 sets). Clay win %’s are better for Baez.
Baez won the title last season. 2 sets win over Tirante in the second round. Semis in Hamburg. Second round at the French Open. Quarter finals in Geneva. Fourth round in Rome and third round in Madrid. Titles in Santiago and Rio.
Gaston beat Altmaier in 3 sets in the first round as underdog. 2 sets win over Carballes Baena in the second round as underdog. He won a Challenger title in June. Quarter finals in Lyon in May.
Baez is going to the Olympics. 12 month ATP stats are close on serve and favour Baez on return. Same Pattern in the last 3 months. As defending champion, Baez should be motivated. It depends whether defending his title is more important than getting to the Olympics early.
Back Baez around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.
Update: Baez was broken in the first game. I backed him. 3 games later, Gaston went 1-40 behind on serve and I reduced some liability. He saved 3 bp’s in that game but held. IN his best service game, Gaston was broken and I removed almost all my liability, leaving the profit on Baez.
Baez was struggling on serve and was immediately broken again. I backed him again. Gaston served for the set and went 0-40 behind. I removed all liability, leaving the profit on Baez. Baez completed the break but was broken once again in the next game. I left the free bet on Baez. I did not back him again as there is a petter than if a player is broken serving for the set, if they then earn the chance to serve for the set again, they usually do a much better job. This time, Gaston held easily.
So, going into set 2, I had a free bet on Baez. He served first and saved 4 bp’s but was broken. I added to my position on Baez but did not leave myself with much liability as I was beginning to think he was more interested in the Olympics.
There were no more breaks until Gaston served at 4-3. Baez broke him and I removed my liability. Another late break gave Baez the set. I hedged evenly.
In the 3rd set, there were no breaks and not many bp’s. They went to a tie break. Baez had 2 match points (one on his own serve) but couldn’t take them. Gaston took the tie break 8-6
Gaston won 7-5, 5-7, 7-6.
I am often asked if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.
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