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FREE Tennis Trading Tip. ATP Kitzbuhel – Baez v Gaston

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Baez 1-0 (Nov 2021, indoors, 3 sets). Clay win %’s are better for Baez.

Baez won the title last season. 2 sets win over Tirante in the second round. Semis in Hamburg. Second round at the French Open. Quarter finals in Geneva. Fourth round in Rome and third round in Madrid. Titles in Santiago and Rio.

Gaston beat Altmaier in 3 sets in the first round as underdog. 2 sets win over Carballes Baena in the second round as underdog. He won a Challenger title in June. Quarter finals in Lyon in May.

Baez is going to the Olympics. 12 month ATP stats are close on serve and favour Baez on return. Same Pattern in the last 3 months. As defending champion, Baez should be motivated. It depends whether defending his title is more important than getting to the Olympics early.

Back Baez around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Update: Baez was broken in the first game. I backed him. 3 games later, Gaston went 1-40 behind on serve and I reduced some liability. He saved 3 bp’s in that game but held. IN his best service game, Gaston was broken and I removed almost all my liability, leaving the profit on Baez.

Baez was struggling on serve and was immediately broken again. I backed him again. Gaston served for the set and went 0-40 behind. I removed all liability, leaving the profit on Baez. Baez completed the break but was broken once again in the next game. I left the free bet on Baez. I did not back him again as there is a petter than if a player is broken serving for the set, if they then earn the chance to serve for the set again, they usually do a much better job. This time, Gaston held easily.
So, going into set 2, I had a free bet on Baez. He served first and saved 4 bp’s but was broken. I added to my position on Baez but did not leave myself with much liability as I was beginning to think he was more interested in the Olympics.
There were no more breaks until Gaston served at 4-3. Baez broke him and I removed my liability. Another late break gave Baez the set. I hedged evenly.
In the 3rd set, there were no breaks and not many bp’s. They went to a tie break. Baez had 2 match points (one on his own serve) but couldn’t take them. Gaston took the tie break 8-6
Gaston won 7-5, 5-7, 7-6.

 
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ATP Umag – Darderi v Mensik

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This will be their first meeting. Clay win %’s are much better for Darderi.

Darderi had an easy win in the first round. He reached the q finals in Hamburg. Challenger title in June. Second round of the French Open. Semis in Lyon. Third round in Rome. Semis in Houston. Q finals in Santiago.

Mensik beat Popyrin as underdog in 2 sets in the first round. He reached the third round in Madrid. He only played 2 clay events in 2024.

12 and 3 month ATP stats are stronger for Darderi.

Back Darderi around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: Darderi got the first break in the 3rd game to lead 2-1. As I expected Mensik to be competitive, I laid Darderi. 3 games later, Mensik broke back. I removed my liability, leaving the profit on Darderi.
2 games later, Mensik broke again to lead 5-3 and served for the set. I placed a small back on Darderi. Mensik was broken and I hedged but left more profit on Darderi as he was my favoured player.
Darderi then served at 4-6 but was broken again. I hedged evenly.
As Darderi had been broken in his last 3 service games, I left the match alone in the second set. Mensik took the set with a single break.

Darderi was perhaps more interested in getting to the Olympics.

Mensik won 6-4, 6-3.

 
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