French Open – Wednesday

13:00 Jankovic v Shvedova – H2H 2-1.

Janko’s serve hasn’t been as solid as in previous weeks. She has still been finding a way to win her matches.

 Shvedova has had a great tournament but may be over awed by Janko and the fact that its a grand slam quarter final.

1.24 is a little low to back Jankovic from the start. Hopefully Shvedova can get off to a fast start to give us a better price to back Jankovic.

Update: Shvedova did get off to a fast start with an early break.

Jankovic came back to win 7-5, 6-4.

 

13:00  S Williams v Stosur H2H 3-1

Stosur beat Henin in the last round. She has reached a couple of finals recently and won the Family Circle Cup in April.

Williams will try to over power her opponent as her starting price of 1.49 is attractive.

Either back Williams on serve or from the start. If she struggles in the opening service games i would revert to scalping and 15-40 for the rest of the match.

Update:  Williams got off to a terrible start. Stosur took advantage of thst to take the firsts et easily. The second was much tighter and Williams eventually won it on a tie break.

Another tight set decided the match.

Stosur won 6-2, 6-7, 8-6.

 

15:00 – Almagro v Nadal

Rankings are 21 and 2. Head to heads are 6-0 to Nadal.

They last played in Madrid in May and Almagro took the first set. Nadal then stepped up several gears and won the next 2 sets easily.

Almagro is again in great form and beat Verdasco in the last round in four sets.

Nadal is back to top form at just the right time and will have been pleased to see Fed go out yesterday. If he can win here this week he will be knocking on the door of the number 1 spot once again.

His starting price of 1.08 doesn’t give us many options for trading. We need to hope that Almagro can again take the first set. Lay Nadal from the start and trade out if his price hits 1.20 to 1.25 .

Update: Nadal didn’t start well and Almagro took an early 3-0 lead which pushed Nadal’s price up to 1.22.

Nadal came back to win the set in a tie break. Almagro managed to stay with the world number 2 in the second set and again it was Nadal’s set in a tie break.

The third was again close with Nadal taking it.

Nadal won 7-6, 7-6, 6-4.

 

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15:00 – Melzer v Djokovic

Rankings are 27 and 3. Head to heads are 2-0 to Djokovic.

Melzer has had a good run to the quarter final. He beat David Ferrer in the third round but Ferrer wasn’t himself.

Djokovic has lost a set in 3 of his 4 matches so hasn’t had things all his own way. He retired sick in Serbia but has come through his matches here with no illness problems. Its often in hot weather that his body can’t cope.

1.29 is too low for Djokovic and I would expect Melzer to take at least one set. If  Melzer can get an early break he has a great chance of hanging on for the opening set.

Over five sets though Djokovic is a very strong favourite ( but how many times have we thought THAT about favourites this week??)

Options are to Lay Djokovic from the start. If Melzer should win the first set, back Djokovic at the start of the second.  The price will move sharply in Djokovic’s favour if the Serbian starts the second set well.

Update: What a match!

Djokovic seemed to be in control with a 2 sets to 0 lead.

Melzer then started to serve much better and was more aggressive. He took the third set easily. Then the fight began!

A very tight set went to a tie break and Melzer raced to a 6-1 lead. Djokovic pulled a couple of points back but Melzer took the next point and the set.

The fifth set was very competitive with both players having opportunities to put their opponent under pressure. Melzer finally got the break for 5-4 and he was serving for the match.

In a tense service game with both players having game points it was Melzer who came through for a great victory.

Melzer won 3-6, 2-6, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4.

I didnt get to the match until the 4th set. I expected Djokovic to take it but it was soon clear that Melzer was holding serve more easily. However I didnt want to stay in a trade too long as if Djokovic got the break his price would crash.

Mid way through the set I lost the scoreboard. By the time I realised the scoreboard had frozen I was in a little trouble but stuck with it. Because Djokovic was 2-1 up I didnt want to have too much liability on him and thought he would find a way to do just enough to win as he often does in tight matches.

In the 5th, the bottom line was that I didnt expect Melzer to have the mental strength to close out the match and left too  much liability on him. I switched to him when he got the late break but it was too late.

That left me with a loss of £122. Keeps my feet on the ground  😉

    Trading Guide