Friday 13th September 2013

I’ve never really been superstitious. I’ve never worried about walking under ladders or stepping on the cracks in the pavement. We have 2 black cats. I do however have various ….. I’m not sure what to call them…..routines…… habits that I go through sometimes in my trading sessions. I think basically I have to be doing something. I have never had much patience and if I can occupy at least part of my brain while waiting for a good entry point then I am less likely to jump in through boredom.  I have a real problem with doing nothing. That doesn’t mean I can’t relax but that I can’t relax by doing nothing. I can’t just lie in the sun. I have to DO something while I am lying there. It’s nice in the summer to sit in the garden with my wife and have a glass of wine. The trouble is that a chat with my wife is a bit like watching Breakfast TV. Once you have listened for 15 minutes you’ve heard it all and it all gets repeated. Then I’m bored. I have an IQ of 130.  I have to occupy my mind.

The routines/habits  started when I was trading at work. I had just a scoreboard to watch and somehow convinced myself that if I concentrated really hard on the score that I wanted to change that I could influence the point! Seriously! In every other part of my life I am very logical and think very clearly and it is obviously ridiculous to think that we can influence a tennis match unless we are able to physically run onto the court. As the years have passed you might think these routines would have gone away. Oh no! They have got worse!

As one routine stops working I come up with another one. The problem with some of them is that they aren’t very discreet. Staring at a scoreboard can be done with no one knowing that you’re doing it. One that isn’t quite so discreet is to raise my left arm above my head and with my right hand I bend the fingers of my left hand back. If I get the right amount of pain the point goes my way! This one came about as I have a trapped nerve in my left elbow caused by resting it on a desk for years. This is one of the exercises that I have to do regularly to release it otherwise the left side of my hand goes numb. In a way thats good as it gets me to do the exercise when otherwise I would forget until I can’t hold my fork properly.

Another involves rubbing my hands together like a cartoon villain so that my wedding ring and the ring on my hand hand click against each other. That works well for break points! I did have a  lucky tennis ball. I have no idea why it was lucky but rubbing the logo worked for a while before I opened the office window and threw it down the street during a WTA match earlier this year.

Err yeah. Not superstitious at all.

So now I have revealed myself as a total mental case, lets look at this evening matches.

 

Erakovic starts at 1.50 against Tomljanovic who served pretty well overall against Mattek Sands.

Erakovic won both their previous meetings but they haven’t played for 2 years. In the last month Erakovic’s serve stats are stronger but Tomljanvic’s return of serve has better numbers.

I would be surprised if Erakovic loses this one but I also expect her to trade well above her SP. As ever I will wait for a higher price.

 

Lauren Davis played an excellent first and third sets in her match last night but just seemed to disappear in the second against Hlavackova.

She has played Safarova just once before which was at this year’s Wimbledon when Safarova won 6-4, 6-0.

Both players have a good record on indoor hard courts.

Safarova scraped through her match yesterday in 2 tie breaks and I feel that Davis can take a set in this one. In the last month her service stats are better than Safarova’s and she isn’t too far behind on return of serve.

Whether I lay Safarova or wait for a higher price depends on what happens in the first fe games. If Safarova gets an early break I will lay.

 

Hercog v McHale and Bouchard v Mladenovic are covered for SHARK TIPS subscribers but if it helps I am going for one favourite and one underdog 😉

 

 

    Trading Advice