Friday 2nd August 2013

I won’t be in the chatroom today as my wife has a hospital visit. Nothing serious, just a medical for her new job.

An unlucky start to August for the Shark Tips service. Granollers won but dominated much more than I expected and our entry price wasn’t reached. Suarez Navarro needs to go back to the caves after that loss to Razzano and Keys lost out in a third set tie break to Niculescu. early days and I have 4 strong picks for subscribers today.

The Wins a Set picks hit 14 from 20 with 5 coming back from a set down. Nordavind is still testing the tweaks to the strategy that he uses on the list picks. WTA picks are still working best with his method. Personally I still prefer to use it as an indication of a strong performance.

 

On to today’s trading and Granollers and Haase are at evens for their semi final. Haase has won the title for the last 2 years and seems to like the conditions in Austria.

They played last week in Gstaad with Haase winning in a third set tie break. Their only other match was in 2010. That was also on clay and went to Granollers. 3 of their 5 sets went to tie breaks.

Looking at their more recent stats Haase is well ahead from the service line but Granollers has a strong lead on return of serve. Granollers creates more break points and converts a higher percentage of the ones he gets.

I only saw the first set of Haase’s match with Verdasco and he was looking pretty tired early in that. All credit to him coming through that match but I would assume Verdasco gave him some help. That 3 setter won’t have helped his energy levels. Last year he defeated Kohlschreiber in the final but that year he hadn’t been to the final the previous week as he has done this season. He had lost in the second round in Hamburg before playing in Kitzbuhel.

Their sets are always close so I am going with the fresher player today.

Granollers to win in 2 tight sets or maybe 3. At least 1 tie break is a real possibility.

Update: Well that went pretty much to script. Te break first set to Granollers. Haase’s body lasted longer than i thought it would and he took the second set and went a break up in the third. A tired body and tired mind just couldn’t get the job done despite a late rally.

Granollers won 7-6, 3-6, 6-4.

 

Monaco has to be too short at 1.53 against Montanes. His second set performances this week have been poor and if Gimeno Traver hadn’t choked at the end of their third set Monaco would be licking his wounds this morning. ( err assuming he treats medical conditions like an animal… you know what I mean).

I actually fancy Montanes to take this match. They played last year on clay and Monaco took that in 3 sets but Montanes has found a new lease of life on the dirt and will be giving everything here as he won’t be having much success when they move to hard courts.

Update: Montanes was the better player in the first set but was broken serving for the set.

Monaco took a double break lead in set 2 but Montanes pulled back only to be broken again.

Monaco won 7-6, 7-5.

 

Ivanovic looks a big price at evens against Vinci on a hard court.  Vinci beat Mattek Sands in the last round but the American didn’t perform well. Ivanovic beat Cibulkova in the first round who had won the title last week and perhaps didn’t fight too much towards the end.

Vinci has actually won 3 of their last 4 matches including the most recent in Montreal last year. All those matches were on a hard court and all saw Ivanovic start as a sub 1.40 favourite. The market is more realistic today.

Ivanovic in 3.

Update: Ivanovic won 6-1, 6-7, 6-2. 

 

 

 

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