Ferrer v Roddick:
Ferrer leads the head to heads 5-4. They have played twice in 2011. Both matches were on hard courts and both were best of 5 sets. Roddick won in the Us Open and Ferrer won in the Davis Cup.
They had very different third round matches. Roddick breezed past Almagro who just couldn’t handle the American’s serve. He won in straight sets. Ferrer couldn’t buy a first serve in his first set against Ferrero. He won just 1 game. In the second set it was much closer. Ferrero went over on his ankle and he needed treatment. His movement after that seemed ok but it must have been a concern and a distraction for him. Ferrer took the set having saved match points. I didn’t watch the third set but it was more one sided in Ferrer’s favour.
Would Ferrer have won if Ferrero hadn’t had the slight injury? He was playing pretty awful tennis in that first set and that is becoming a theme in his matches. How often have we seen him lose his serve the very first game? Do that against Roddick and you will have a tough job to get back into the set.
Roddick played too passively for most of the match against Dimitrov and you would imagine his coaching team brought this to his attention. They must do something to earn their money, right? Against Almagro he played more positively and it paid off with a hassle free straight sets win.
So I think we are looking at Roddick taking an early break and holding serve to the end of the opening set. Ferrer doesn’t seem phased by being behind and 1 bad game from Roddick can let Ferrer in. The Spaniard struggles quite frequently in his own service games and this week has been no exception but he has every chance of taking it to 3 sets.
Once we’re in 3 sets its a lottery and I’d expect to be greened up and out of the market by then.
Based on the third round matches I’d go with Roddick to get the win.
Update: Very close match as expected. As wasn’t expected though Ferrer served well right from the first point and kept ahead of Roddick. The set went to a tie break and Ferrer served at 5-4 but Roddick came back to win.
The second set went almost exactly as I though with Roddick relaxing and ferrer stepping up the pressure. He won the set with 2 breaks of serve.
Third set and both players had chances to egt the break, especially Ferrer who was receiving at 5-4 and had the first 2 points. In that game he had and lost match points. Roddick pulled back to force a tie break and you would have expected the king of tie breaks to take the match from there.
Unfortunately he turned out to be the tie break king spanial and totally folded handing the match to Ferrer.
Ferrer won 6-7, 6-2, 7-6.
Mayer v Lopez:
Lopez leads the head to heads 2-1. On hardcourts they are 1-1.
Has Mayer ever played a better match than he did against Nadal? Thats unlikely. Admittedly Nadal wasn’t at his best but for large parts of the match he wasn’t allowed to be. To be able to come out the following day and get himself motivated again could be a tough ask.
Lopez also grabbed himself a big scalp in the shape of Tomas Berdych. Berdych was also below his best which wasn’t totally unexpected with his tournament win last week. However Lopez seemed to be over his alleged virus from the previous day and played some inspired tennis.
Lopez’ win was probably more about his serve whereas Mayer had to show a lot of variety to beat Nadal.I doubt that he can repeat that level in this match but if he can continue to serve well himself then he has the skill to get through this match on top.
I would be surprised if we don’t see a tie break. If Mayer can get close to his Nadal form then he has an edge but if he suffers a letdown following that win it goes to Lopez who has beaten Berdych before so won’t be as affected by his victory.
Difficult to go against Mayer and he is my pick to win.
Update: Mayer’s form was well below the form from the previous match and Lopez continued his excellent form.
Lopez won 6-2, 6-4.