Ok, the first match that stood out was Giraldo v Llodra. Why the hell is the clay courter a favourite against Llodra who has a decent serve and volley game which is well suited to this surface? The rumours are that Llodra has been paid a wad of cash to throw the match. If the world number 27 would even consider that in one of the biggest tournaments of the year then its a sad day for tennis. Giraldo is currently 1.64 and I may have a small lay of him. I am guessing its a false rumour either started on a betting forum or released from Llodra’s camp. If you get involved be very careful.
Update: Any rumours were proved to be wrong. Llodra raced to a 3-0 lead. He almost threw it away but took the opening set in a tie break and won the second set 6-4. I layed before the match at 1.65 and greened out at 2.80 . Thanks to whoever started the rumours 😉
20:00 – Davydenko v Wrawrinka
Rankings are 42 and 14. Head to heads are 1-0 to Davydenko.
Davy hasn’t been the same since his wrist injury. He has shown small flashes of the form we know he is capable of but in every match he has shown that his game and especially his serve is very fragile. A player with his ability should never have needed 3 sets to get Fognini on a hard court yesterday.
Wawrinka has won 9 of his 10 matches on hard courts this season and his only loss was against Federer.
If a set goes to tie break then Davydenko has lost both his tb’s on hard courts this year. Wawrinka has won all 4 of his.
Davy’s stats don’t look bad with serve being held 80% of the time and his return stats are better than Stan’s but it looks like a no brainer to go with Wawrinka in this one.
I’ll be backing him with half stake from the start and backing him on serve.
Update: Davydenko didn’t look comfortable in the opening couple of games and Wawrinka started strongly. Then everything changed. Davy started to look a little more like his old self and Wawrinka looked like he didn’t care about the match. Davy broke serve and went on to take the set. after that Wawrinka woke up again and fought back to tak the second set in a tie break. n the decider he was 5-4 up and serving for the match. He made heavy work of it but hung on to win 3-6, 7-6, 6-4.
22:00 – Becker v Bellucci
Rankings are 60 and 29. Head to heads are 1-0 to Bellucci.
Becker served exceptionally well against De Bakker in the last round. He has held serve 82% this season. Bellucci holds 77%.
Bellucci is better than his opponent on return of serve.
This will be a very tight match. Their only previous meeting which was last year finished 7-6, 7-5 to Bellucci.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tie break in the match so backing both on serve seems like an option.However I recommend caution if backing Bellucci on serve. I expect Becker to come out on top as Bellucci will need a few games to make the transition from clay to hard courts. His last 8 matches were on clay.
Update: This match came down to who was the bigger mug on the day. Unfortunately it was Becker.
Bellucci won 6-3, 7-6.