19:00 – Jankovic v Wozniacki
Rankings are 9 and 4. Head to heads are 3-0 to Jankovic.
Jankovic is in a great run of form. She has been very solid on serve and has a great chance to win the title.
Wozniacki starts as favourite on Betfair. She has had some tough matches to reach the final and may have slightly lower energy reserves than her opponent.
I would give Jankovic the advantage especially if it goes to 3 sets.
Use scalping and 15-40.
Update: Straight forward game to trade. Jankovic broke in the very first game. She moved into a 4-0 lead and took the first set. She broke in the first game of the second set and managed to hang on to her service games to take the match.
I backed her after the break in the first set and gave her the chance to break again which she did. At 3-0 up I decided to let it run to the end of the set. She was 2 breaks up so when she lost her serve I didnt close the trade. She then broke back immediately. At the end of the set I closed the trade but didn’t hedge.
In the second I backed her again after the break and closed the trade at 4-2 as she was struggling to hold serve. I backed her on a couple more service games and didnt hedge as she served for the match. As I had no liability I wasn’t too worried at letting it run.
Jankovic won 6-2, 6-4.
21:00 – Roddick v Ljubicic
Rankings are 8 and 26. Head to heads are 7-3 in Roddick’s favour.
Roddick had a tough match against Soderling in the semi final and you could see at the end how much the victory meant to him. He is playing infront of a very vocal home crowd and this will give him s huge lift.
Ljubicic is the surprise finalist as no one expected him to beat Nadal. His serve will need to be at its best if he is to have any chance today. He may struggle with his fitness if the match turns out to be a long one.
Serves will dominate the game and I expect Roddick to be breaking serve first.
Either back Roddick on serve or back him from the start. If you back from the start make sure you have your strategy for if he loses serve. Also if it gets to a tie break I recommend hedging out and waiting to see who gets the advantage in the tie break.
Update: This one wasn’t so straight forward!
In the first game of the match Roddick was serving and went 0-40 down. I layed him and he came back to win the game. That left me with around -£67 on both players. Great start!
No breaks of serve throughout the match and so 2 tie breakers. Both went to Ljubicic who takes his first title.
Roddick seemed to be on top after that first game and I backed him, expecting a break. The break didn’t come and I decided to reduce liability before the tie break. I was able to back Ljubicic at 4-1 in the tie break which he won.
I then hedged for around -£40. I then backed both players on their serve ( laying Ljubicic on Roddick’s serve) and managed to get rid of all liability. As the set went on I decided to only back Ljubicic’s serve as a break in his favour could leave me with a nasty red figure on him and a very low price to try to get rid of it.
Then on Ljubicic’s serve he was break point down and I closed the trade but obviously my liability was back up. I moved the red around so I had approx -100 on Roddick and -50 on Ljubicic. By backing Ljubicic on a service game I got 10 ticks with stakes of £250 and reduced the red figure on him to -£25.
In the second set tie break I waited until Ljubicic had 2 mini breaks at 4-1 and backed him. As his price was so low by that time I did little more than cover my liability on him. Thankfully he served out the tie break.