Indian Wells – Wednesday

18:00 – Querrey v Robredo

Rankings are 24 and 28. Head to heads are 1-0 to Robredo.

Going on the stats for these 2 players then on paper Robredo has the edge in almost every category. They both hold serve over 80% but Robredo has a better first serve percentage and returns better! He also saves more break points against him and creates more break point opportunities for himself.

Both have been playing well this week. Querrey loves playing at home and has beaten Verdasco and Tipsarevic so far. Robredo beat Young in the last round who knocked out Murray but I feel Young’s mind was still on that victory.

I have to go with the home player here. Querrey starts at 1.56 on betfair and I will be backing him from the start. If he can maintain his high level of serving then Robredo will struggle to cope with it. This will not be an easy match for Querrey but the crowd will give hima  great lift.

Without his serve Querrey would be the underdog here so lets hope it doesn’t let him down.

Back Querrey from the start or back him on serve. If backing from the start make sure you have your strategy ready for if the trade goes against you. Find ideas for this at the  TradeShark Tennis members area.

Update: OH………MY………GOD!

Maybe I tempted fate by saying that Querrey would struggle without his serve. He proved my point perfectly. Thanks Sam.

That was one of the worst displays I have seen from a “top” player. His serve was terrible in the first set and Robredo took it very easily. In the second set Robredo was suffering with a groin strain and was hobbling around the court, clearly in a lot of discomfort. An opponent with half an ounce of sense would have simply moved him from side to side, from the back of the court to the net. Fortunately for Robredo he was playing Querrey. The American jut couldn’t keep the ball in court. It was painful to watch.

Robredo won 6-1, 6-3.

 

 

22:00 – Montanes v Karlovic

Rankings are 26 and 239. Head to heads are 1-1. Both matches were on clay.

Karlovic has a reputation of just being a big serve with nothing else. In his match against Simon he showed he is much more than that. The Frenchman just couldn’t cope with the bombs that Karlovic was throwing at him.

Montanes has been very solid on serve this week but how will he cope with knowing that he has to hold serve or he loses the set? When you are stood on the line about to start your service game are you fully focussed or are you thinking about the 2 or 3 aces that whizzed past your ears in the previous game?

I expected Simon and Ferrer to be able to deal with Karlovic’s serve but they rarely got near it. Montanes is a very confident player but I have seen him sulk big time if he gets frustrated.

Its hard to go against a player holding serve 92%. Karlovic only wins 19% of points against a first serve but if you look at stats for just this week he has improved that to 28% which is actually better than Montanes’ figures for this week. ( Incidentally Karlovic’s service hold percentage for the week is 97%! ).

Karlovic has created more break point chances than normal this week too. He has 0.4 break points per game on average compared to his normal 0.19 per game.

The stats show that Karlovic is the form player and having watched him against Simon I can’t see him being broken too often. Montanes’ best hope is to hang on to his own service games and take his chances in a tie break.

I wish Karlovic’s price was a little higher than 1.43 but I will be backing from the start and also backing him on serve. Lets hope he can keep it going!

Update: A vey tight match. Montanes had an medical timeout for a leg injury but seemed to be fine afterwards. The first set went to tie break and both players had chances to take it but it was Karlovic who came through.

In the second set Karlovic won an early break of serve and held his serve for the remaining games and added a second beak for good measure.

Karlovic won 7-6, 6-2.

    Trading Guide