Sounds simple, right? Wait for the set to end and lay whoever won it. The obvious problem is that not all first set losers take the first break of serve in the second set or go on to win set two.

Anything can happen in tennis but how can we improve our chances of making a profit?

Since I started trading tennis back in 2008 I have looked for a solid indicator of whether or not the set loser will bounce back in the next set. The truth is there is no magic statistic that we can look at from the first set that will tell us with any certainty that laying will bring us profit.

Does that mean we just guess? I’ve never been a fan of guessing with my hard-earned money. I want the percentages to be in my favour. This section will show you what factors I look at when deciding whether or not to lay the set winner.

Players’ form and stats in set one

The way the players performed in the first set can’t be ignored when trying to assess how set two will go.

If I am going to back a player in the second set I need to have seen them put pressure on their opponent’s serve in set one. Ideally they need to have broken the opponent’s serve. Failing that they need to have had break points.

As well as being able to pressure the other player’s serve, my player needs to have served fairly well themselves. For example if they have held serve once in the first set then I am unlikely to lay the set winner. I don’t mind if they have faced a lot of break points as long as they have saved most of them. That shows that they are fighting and not crumbling under the pressure.

If both players struggled on serve then we have a good chance that this will continue into the next set. We can lay the set winner on their serve but it is probably wise to at least remove liability when our player gets a break of serve.

If the pre match favourite gets broken in their first service game of the match but then holds serve fairly easily for the rest of the set, if they lose the set there is a VERY good chance that they will bounce back in set 2. Most players can be vulnerable in their first service game of the match.

We should always monitor the in play stats. I use Tennis24.com.

A player can make a really bad start to a set and perhaps loses their serve once or twice. By monitoring how the in play stats are changing we can see that they are being more competitive as the set goes on. They may have left it too late to recover enough to win the set but this is a good indicator that it is worth backing them after they lose the set.

A close first set means a close second set

Not necessarily.

In a men’s match where both players are serving well and there was just a single break or a tie break then there is a good chance that the next set will be similar. However the bigger the difference in their rankings / ability the more the chances are that the underdog has given everything he has to keep the set tight and the next set will be more one sided.

In women’s matches you are likely to see a COMPLETELY different second set to the first set. It is not unknown to get one set being 6-0 and the next set being 6-0 to the OTHER player. When this happens you will see people on Twitter commenting about, “….that’s typical WTA!”. It not exactly common but it does happen. This sort of score line can of course also happen in men’s matches but it’s less common.

Pre match analysis

When I am assessing the match before it starts one of the main things I am looking at is how much of a chance does the underdog have. If I think they have a chance of taking a set, assuming I am right, then it really increases the chances of us having 3 sets.

Analysing matches takes practise and experience. Take a look at this video to get you started.

When do we exit?

As a general rule, exit if your player gets broken. With more experience and knowledge of the players, if your player gets broken you might want to lay again at the lower price. If a player goes a set and a break ahead they will often relax and allow their opponent back into the set.

If the set score reaches 4-4, I will usually exit. The prices can get volatile after this as we are close to the end of the set and potentially we are close to the end of the match.

Other points to consider

Especially in women’s matches if the first set ends 6-1 it is VERY likely that the losing player will at least get a break of serve in the second set and will often win the set. Obviously, if there is a huge difference in the players’ abilities then the turnaround is far less likely. This works especially well where the favourite is above 1.60 at the start of the match.

In both men’s and women’s matches, if the first set goes to a tie break then it favours the pre match favourite in set two. This is regardless of who wins the tie break.

When we have decided to lay:

The first question is, if our player is serving first do we place the lay as soon as the set ends or do we wait for them to hold serve before we lay the set winner?

Personally, in men’s matches I would lay as soon as the set ends. In women’s matches, I handle it a little differently. Let’s say that the set winner is Player A and the set loser is Player B. If Player B is serving first in set two, it can be a good idea to let them have their service game before laying. If you choose that option, Lay Player A after that first service game. If Player B holds serve, the price usually won’t rise very far. If Player B gets broken then Player A is now a set and a break ahead and we have an excellent value entry at a low price.

Another option is to lay Player A with part stake as soon as the set ends and add the rest when or if Player B holds serve. If Player B gets broken in the first game we can still lay the rest of our stake at the new lower price.

If Player B is NOT serving first in a women’s match, I will lay Player A straight after the set ends. In men’s matches, if they have both served fairly well I will wait for the set winner to hold before I lay.

If you are laying as soon as the set ends, try to anticipate where the price will be when there are 1 or 2 points remaining of the first set. Place your lay at that price. The reason for entering a couple of points early is that very often the market will over react a little to the set being won but will almost immediately move up a few ticks as other traders start to enter their own lays.

If you anticipate the price correctly you can easily get 3, 4 or more ticks profit in a few seconds.

If you have some profit from set 1, you have the opportunity to have a risk free lay of the set winner. I’d advise you to use around 25% of you first set profit. If my favoured player lost the first set, I will often use more of the first set profit as a recovery in the second set is a little more certain.

Good luck!