Daily match picks

Sofia Kenin 2.62, Garbine Muguruza 1.61

Due to start at 8:30 am

They have met just once before which was in Beijing in September last year. Kenin won on a hard court in 3 sets. Overall results are a little better for Kenin in last 12 months. She also leads on hard courts and has the higher ROI.

Muguruza dropped sets in the first 2 rounds but her last 4 wins were in straight sets including wins over Simona Halep, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Kiki Bertens and Elina Svitolina. She didn’t have a good season in 2019 but has started 2020 pretty well. She has made the better start to the season.

Kenin has lost just 1 set which was against Cori Gauff in the fourth round. She beat Ashleigh Barty in 2 close sets in the semi final. She has had just 1 disappointing match in 2020 which a weak loss to Danielle Collins in Adelaide.

Kenin has better service hold stats for the tournament but Muguruza leads the stats for everything else. She has also served well but Kenin leads 86% to 77% service games held. This should go to 3 sets. Some value on Muguruza.

Kenin has been in the third round at a grand slam tournament 3 times and made it to the fourth round once. Muguruza reached the Wimbledon final in 2015 and won the French Open title in 2016. She won Wimbledon in 2017 and reached the semi finals at the French Open in 2018. It’s fair to say Muguruza has more experience of playing in the big matches.

There is a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. Lay Muguruza around 1.40 and remove the liability at 1.80. Lay the set 1 winner. I think experience will give Muguruza a small advantage.

   

Dominic Thiem 1.51, Alexander Zverev 2.92

Due to start at 8:30 am

Thiem leads their previous matches 6-2. Their last match was in November last year on an indoor hard court. Thiem won that one in straight sets. They have only played 1 match on a hard court. That was in Beijing in October 2016. Zverev won in 3 sets.

Overall results favour Thiem in the last 12 months. He won 74% of his matches compared to 63% for Zverev. On hard courts he leads 78% v 67% matches won. 

Zverev dropped his first set of the tournament in his quarter final with Stan Wawrinka. There has been less drama in Zverev’s journey to the semi finals. He has just quietly gone about his business. That may not work in his favour. Often when a player is on their way to a slam final they have a match where they really have to fight. It “battle hardens” them for the tougher matches that are to come.

Thiem needed 5 sets to beat Alex Bolt in the second round. Taylor Fritz also took a set from him and of course Nadal won a set. Thiem’s win over Nadal could have taken a lot out of him Not only physically but emotionally. There is a chance that he will be a little “flat” at the start of this match.

Their stats for the tournament are very even. Both players have served extremely well holding around 90% of their service games.  If Thiem can maintain his form from the last match he will win. One of the reasons he played so well was because Nadal was on the other side of the net. Thiem was forced to raise his level to beat the Spaniard. He will had fed off the atmosphere and energy that players like Nadal, Djokovic and Federer create just by being there. It will a great atmosphere tonight but it won’t be the same.

This is Zverev’s first semi final. Thiem has been in the French Open final for the last 2 seasons and also made the semi finals of the French Open in 2017 ( lost to Nadal in all 3 matches). Zverev is the more mentally fragile of the 2 players. Thiem has matured into a very strong player and his mental strength is no longer in question.

This should be an amazing match. Lay Thiem around 1.35 and remove the liability at 1.70. Back Thiem if he goes a break behind or if he loses set 1. This won’t be over in 3 sets. Lay the set 1 winner regardless of who wins it.

Update: Great match! Both suffered with nerves. Zverev took the first set. Thiem eventually took the second. The third and fourth sets went to tie breaks and Thiem was mentally stronger.
Thiem won 3-6, 6-4, 7-6, 7-6