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WTA Finals, The Final
Muguruza v Kontaveit
Due to at at 1:30 am
Muguruza 3-2. Most recent Nov 2021, hard, Muguruza in 2 sets. That was this week. Kontaveit won indoors last month in 2 easy sets. Long term overall win %’s favour Kontaveit. Long term hard win %’s favour Muguruza. She also has better hard results this season.
Stats for their last 10 on hard are even for everything except service holds. Kontaveit leads that stat 81% v 76%.
When they played this week, I feel that Kontaveit was trying to conserve a little energy. She was broken in the 1st game of each set and those were the only breaks in the match.
Muguruza dominated her semi final with Badosa. She served well. Her only loss this week came in her first match when she was beaten in a 3rd set tie break by Pliskova.
Kontaveit only faced 2 bp against Sakkari and was broken both times. She beat Krejcikova and Pliskova in straight sets.
Some value on Muguruza. Very good chance of 3 sets. Lay Kontaveit around 1.40 to 1.50 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay the set 1 winner.