Daily match picks

Tennnys Sandgren 2.52, Fabio Fognini 1.65

Due to start around 5 am.

Fognini leads their previous matches 2-1. Their last match was at Wimbledon last July and Sandgren won in straight sets. Both of Fognini’s wins were on clay.

Overall results are quite even in the last 12 months. Fognini has stronger hard court results.

Fognini had his first straight sets win of the tournament in the last round. Guido Pella had a problem with his foot but Fognini played a very solid match. In the previous 2 rounds he beat Bautista Agut and Reilly Opelka in fifth set tie breaks.

Sandgren beat Sam Querrey and Matteo Berrettini as underdog. Berettini almost fought back from 2 sets down in their second round match. Sandgren took that one in 5 sets. He also came under a lot of pressure from Querrey and faced 14 break points but was only broken twice. Fognini will also make him work very hard for his service holds and is a much better returner than Querrey is.

This could be another 5 setter for Fognini. Back him around 1.95. I expect Sandgren to take at least a set. Lay the set 1 winner.

   

Camila Giorgi 2.46, Angelique Kerber 1.67

Due to start at Midnight.

Kerber has won all 4 of their previous matches. Their last match was in Sydney in January last year. She won in straight sets on a hard court. All their matches were on hard courts. Giorgi has taken 1 set from her. Their last 3 matches were in Australia.

Better results for Kerber in the last 12 months. She has been comfortable in both her matches this week. She retired from her second round match with Yastremska last week in Adelaide. She has seemed to be over whatever the issue was and was perhaps just being careful with a minor injury.

Giorgi also has not dropped a set this week. She faced just 1 break point in the first round match with Antonia Lottner. Svetlana Kuznetsova was poor in the last round and took just 4 games from Giorgi.

Giorgi has slightly better service stats for the tournament and all other stats favour Kerber. Kerber is likely to make hard work of this match but I expect her to get the win. Back her around 2.10. Don’t be surprised if it goes to 3 sets.