Daily match picks

Belinda Bencic 1.60, Jelena Ostapenko 2.64

Due to start at midnight.

Ostapenko won their only previous meeting. That was in Indian Wells in March 2018. She won in 3 sets on a hard court.

Better overall results for Bencic in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are much stronger in the same period.

Ostapenko has an easy win over Ludmilla Samsonova in the last round. Ostapenko served quite well in that match. She won 80% of her first serve points and only hit 3 double faults. She can normally hit that total in her first service game! She saved all 5 of the break points that she faced.

Bencic beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in 2 close sets in the last round. She faced 15 break points and was broken 4 times. Bencic has been a little disappointing in her last 2 matches. She won just 4 games against Danielle Collins in Adelaide last week.

I think we have a very good chance that this goes to 3 sets. We have value on Ostapenko and she has a great chance tonight. Lay Bencic around 1.40 to 1.50 and remove the liability at 1.95. Lay the set 1 winner.

   

Kristyna Pliskova 1.95, Heather Watson

Due to start at Midnight

Head to heads are 1-1. Their last meeting was on an indoor court in Katowice, Poland in 2016. Pliskova won in 3 sets. Watson won on a hard court in Cincinnati in 2014. She won in straight sets.

Overall results favour Watson in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are also a little better.

Watson reached the semi finals in Hobart last week although she usually lifts her game for that tournament. She ended 2019 by reaching the final in Tianjin on hard courts. Last week she had to work pretty hard for most of her service holds and really struggled to consolidate a break of serve with a hold on her own serve.

Pliskova reached the semi finals in Shenzhen 2 weeks ago. She beat defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the second round. Last week she reached the second round in Hobart but lost in 3 sets to Lizette Cabrera. Perhaps she wanted to be rested for Melbourne.

I give the edge to Pliskova. Back her around 2.30. We have a decent chance of seeing 3 sets.

Update: Pliskova just hit my preferred entry price and went on to win the first set. After that it was all Watson so we had the expected 3 sets. Watson won 4-6, 6-3, 6-1