Daily match picks

Hmm let me think….

I have never been a fan of the betfair forums with the exception of a (very) limited number of peope on the cricket forum who know what they’re talking about. The tennis forum. Now that’s another matter altogether. I feel quite sorry for anyone who trawls through all the garbage posted on there looking for some decent insight into the upcoming games or the tennis world in general.

Lately it seems to have gone into a real nose dive with anyone posting a conflicting view being labelled a mug. Players names wherever possible have the word mug inserted into them. There’s the odd thread asking why the forum is so quiet compared to recent months/years. The fact is that why would anyone want to post on there to have their opinions ridiculed for not agreeing with the few arrogant posters who seem to make it their mission to discourage anyone from taking part.

Not surprisingly when a match is at a potential turning point and you think there might be some words of wisdom on there you will usually find absolutely nothing.

Leave these kids with the forum. It seems to have replaced their playground. There are a handful of posters who know tennis on there but I doubt they will be there much longer.

I suppose we shouldn’t be too harsh on them. Perhaps they will begin to act like adults when puberty has finally passed 😉

   

Anyone who has spent any time in trading chatrooms or forums is likely to have had experience of the cries of “fix!!” when a match or market seems suspect. Ofcourse a lot of the time all that’s happened is they are in a losing position but occasionally we see markets that are clearly not being affected purely by the match score. Sometimes its blatantly obvious that the result of the match has been arranged prior to the game starting.

You may remember the match between Chela and Shwank in Acapulco back in February where Chela started as underdog despite being priced at 1.50 in the hours before the match and being far superior to his opponent. He then went on the win the first set easily and it wasn’t until he was a break up in the second set that he became favourite on Betfair!  Chela led 5-1 in the second set and then allowed Shwank to come back. to 5-4. Chela was broken when serving for the match. He double faulted on break point. Schwank held serve for 6-5 and then Chela quit saying he was injured.

Very few are so blatant and it was surprising that no action seems to have been taken against Chela. The price movements show without any doubt that there were people with inside information and the retirement was agreed before the match. Chela can sue me if he wishes. Most of the time it is very difficult to prove that a player isn’t trying or is actively throwing the match. It can be a fine line between a brilliant passing shot and the ball landing in the tramlines.

The Tennis Integrity Unit have reportedly passed a list to the Wimbledon organisers of people who should be banned from certain areas which give them access to players. That includes the locker rooms, practice courts and some of the social areas. The people on this list are not players but are those who try to influence the outcome of matches. Only the top players make enough money from playing to make any bribes or incentives unattractive. As more and more money is attracted to the gambling aspects of tennis so more and more players will be given an offer too good to refuse. Making it more tempting for them is the fact that only 1 player has ever received a life ban for match fixing and that was Austrian Koellerer in May this year.

The TIU is run by a former Scotland Yard detective and was set up by the ITF, ATP and WTA to protect the sport from betting scandals. All players must sign up to the Uniform Tennis Anti-Corruption Programme.

In reality the vast majority of tennis matches are not fixed and the players are giving the best they can to get the win. You are still unlucky if you get caught out by an unexpected retirement ( although sometimes it works in our favour. Thanks Azarenka! ). Sensible bank management will ensure minimum damage to our trading accounts.