Daily match picks

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ATP Adelaide
Fearnley v Halys 1.60
Due to start at 2 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Fearnley 1-0 (Sep 2024, indoors, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Halys.

Fearnley lost in the qual rounds. He reached the 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025.

Halys retired from the qual round last season. This time, he has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round in Brisbane as qualifier last week. Semi finals in Dubai 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Halys on serve.
Back Halys around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Halys in 2 sets.

Update: Start price was 1.73 on Halys. He served first and was broken to 30. I laid Fearnley at 1.69 (which is 2.46 on the Halys ladder).

In the next game, Fearnley went 30-40 behind. I removed some liability at 1.90. Halys took the break point and I removed almost all the liability by laying Halys at 1.77. That was followed by an easy hold for Halys.

In the next game, Fearnley was broken again. Halys led 3-1. His price was 1.29. I removed the remaining liability and left the free bet on Halys.

In the next game, Halys went 0-40 behind. He saved the break points but faced another which Fearnley converted. Fearnley was broken for the third time in the next game. It was more like WTA!

Halys held to lead 5-2 and went on to take the set without any more drama. Halys was 1.24 after the set.

In the second set, The first 6 games were all holds of serve with no break points. If the score had reached 4-4, I would have seriously considered hedging and moving to another match. I got lucky! Halys broke to lead 4-3. His price hit 1.06 and I hedged.

Halys won 6-3, 6-4.

 

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ATP Auckland
Norrie 1.45 v Gaston
Due to start at 5 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Norrie 2-0. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, 2 sets. He won on hard in March 2022, 2 sets.12 month hard win %’s are a little better for Gaston.

Norrie lost in the 1st round last year. He reached the 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, 3rd Round in Washington 2025, 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals in Delray Beach 2025, Quarter finals in Hong Kong 2025.

Gaston has come through the qual rounds. 4 ATP 2nd rounds in 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Norrie on serve.
Back Norrie around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Match prediction: Norrie in 2 sets

Update: Only 1 game in the first 8 had break points. That was when Gaston served at 2-2. He faced 2 break points and was broken. When Gaston served at 3-5, he was broken again to lose the set.

As I expected Norrie to win in straight sets, I did not lay him in the 2nd set. There was just 1 late break in the set that gave Norrie the set and the match.

No trades placed.

Norrie won 6-3, 6-4.