Daily match picks

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ATP Brisbane
Kovacevic v Mpetshi Perricard 1.64
Due to start at 2:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. 12 month hard win %’s are a little better for Kovacevic.

Kovacevic had a 2 sets win over Kyrgios in the 1st round. 3 tight sets win over Norrie as underdog in the 2nd round.
He reached the Final in Los Cabos 2025. He won 2 of huis last 10 on hard.

Perricard reached the Semi final last year. 3rd set tie break win over Paul in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win in the 2nd round as slight favourite.
4th Round in Shanghai 2025, Semi finals in Winston-Salem 2025.

12 month ATP stats favour Perricard on serve. Stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Perricard.
Back Perricard around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match Prediction: Mpetshi Perricard in 3 sets.

Update: Perricard served first. The first 2 games were holds of serve. In the 3rd game, Perricard went 15-40 behind. I laid Kovacevic. Perricard recovered to hold after saving 3 break points. I removed half my liability.

The next 5 games were holds. Only one of them saw the returner get to 30. The score was now 4-4. It was hard to pick a set winner. I decided to hedge so I could at least take a little profit into set 2.

The set went to a tie break which Kovacevic won.

Kovacevic served first in the second set. I laid him. He was broken to 15. I removed the liability on Kovacevic and left the green on Perricard.

The next 2 games were holds. Perricard served at 2-1. He faced a break point but recovered to hold. The next 6 games were easy holds and Perricard took the set. I hedged evenly. As there had been just 1 break of serve in the match, I was not keen to enter in the third set.

Only 1 of the games in the deciding set saw the receiver get more than 1 point. That game was the 4th game and was a break to 15 for Kovacevic.

Kovacevic won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3.

 

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WTA Brisbane
Muchova v Alexandrova 1.84
Due to start at 2:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Alexandrova 4-1. Most recent Feb 2025, indoors, Alexandrova in 2. She won on clay in Apr 2021, 3 sets. Muchova won indoors in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are better for Muchova.

Muchova needed a 3rd set tie break against Tomljanovic in the 2nd round.
She reached the Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Dubai 2025.

Alexandrova lost in the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Kenin in the 2nd round.
Final in Ningbo 2025, 3rd Round in Wuhan 2025, Final in Seoul 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Final in Monterrey 2025, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025, Semi finals in Doha 2025.

12 month WTA stats are a little better for Muchova on serve and favour Alexandrova on return. Stats for their last 10 favour Alexandrova on serve.

Lay Muchova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Alexandrova in 3 sets.

Update: Alexandrova was broken in the first game. I laid Muchova. Muchova went 0-40 behind in the next game and I removed half my liability. Alexandrova was then broken again in the next game! I again laid Muchova to add to my position. In the next game, Muchova went 15-40 behind and I removed most of my liability, leaving the green on Alexandrova.

The next 2 games were holds. Alexandrova served at 3-3 and was broken to 0. In the next game, Muchova faced a break point. This time I hedged evenly. Alexandrova occasionally has matches where she really struggles on serve and she had not started well at all! Muchova recovered to hold. The next 2 games were holds and Muchova took the set.

Alexandrova served first in the second set. She was broken to 30. Muchova was now a set and a break ahead which is very often an excellent entry point. I used some of the profit from the first set to lay Muchova. 3 games later, Muchova was broken and I hedged evenly.

A late break for Muchova gave her the chance to serve for the match. She did so successfully.

Muchova won 6-4, 7-5.