Miami, March 21st

Andujar c Giraldo:

Two clay courters who have successfully developed their hard court games in the last 12 months.

All their previous matches were on clay and Giraldo leads the head to head 2-1. Andujar  won their most recent match which was at last year’s French Open.

Most of the stats over the last 3 months favour Giraldo with the exception of stats for return of serve. Both have a good serve although Giraldo posts better stats holding 78% of the time compared to Andujar’s 67%. Andujar creates more break point chances.

At Indian Wells Andujar reached the fourth round. His three win all came as an underdog.  Haase managed 3 sets but Florian Mayer and Ramos were despatched in straight sets. In his fourth round loss to Djokovic he took the second set in a tie break.

Giraldo lost in the third round at Indian Wells although he came up against Almagro. He played a great match and only lost in a third set tie break. He beat world ranked 17 Nishikori in round two.

Giraldo starts as favourite on Betfair but I feel 1.53 is too low. As both players have shown excellent recent hard court form it isn’t easy to predict a winner before seeing how they start the match and perform on the day. For this reason I will be laying Giraldo from the start and hopefully take advantage as the market gradually corrects itself during the first set.

I expect the sets to be tight.

 

Rogowska v Foretz Gacon:

30 year old Foretz Gacon is enjoying a good spell of form this year.  She came through the qualifying rounds beating Rezai who had played well in her previous match. In 2012 she hasn’t lost a main tour match when starting as favourite.

Rogowska reached the quarter finals in Kuala Lumpur. She lost as an underdog to Daniilidou in 3 sets. She has had some excellent results on the ITF tour with 1 title, another final appearance and also a quarter final this year.

These players are very even. Rogowska doesn’t have a good record in America and prefers to stay at home in Australia. other than Indian Wells, where she lost in the first qualifying round, and Kuala Lumpur she hasn’t  played tournaments outside Oz since the US Open last year.

1.71 seems like a decent price on Foretz Gacon.

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