Monday 29th April 2013

Davydenko is a strong favourite to beat Dodig but his starting price is too low at 1.37 . Dodig is better on hard courts and has lost 7 of his last 8 on clay.

They have only played once before which was at the 2011 US Open. Davydenko won in 5 sets. Davy is a much better clay courter. I want over 1.60 .

Update: Dodig served well and it looked like Davy had a bad day at the office.

Dodig won 6-4, 6-4.


Laura Robson hasn’t been in the best form but starts as favourite against Morita at 1.73 .

Morita’s form hasn’t been any better. I think we will see a few swings in this match but I expect Robson to win.

Morita’s consistency is one of her strengths and Robson will need her serve to be better than we have seen lately. She has stronger ground strokes and if she can start the match well her confidence will grow.

I’d like to back Robson above evens which we should see in the early games as the market tries to work out who is stronger on the day.

Update: Another bad match from the service line from Robson. She needs to turn this around or her ranking will plumet.

Morita won 6-2, 7-5.


Muller is pretty poor on clay. His opponent today is Roger Vasselin who has been in decent form.  Muller’s serve is a huge part of his game and the slower surface reduces its effectiveness.

Roger Vasselin starts at 1.43 . As usual SP offers no value but if we get 1.65 to 1.70 then its worth backing Vasselin. I expect him to be the more consistent and Muller will get frustrated when he can’t hit through him.

Update: Muller had an MTO during the opening set and retired after the set was complete.

Roger Vasselin won 6-1 (ret)

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4 thoughts on “Monday 29th April 2013”

  1. The one on Davydenko went the other way around, though I haven’t watched the game 😛

    No disrespect for your analysis or the player’s value, but do you think Dav is in that stage of his carrer, where we can take some opportunities of him being overrated against other same or similar level players?

    I noticed Federer had some good lays in some of the tournaments he participated this year. He’s the other example of this in the top-ranks.

    1. Well of course its easy to say aafter the match. Davy has had some good performances recently and Dodig has been poor. The bottom line is that we never know if someone will have an off day or maybe have one of those days where your serve hits the line and you are in the zone and see the ball early. Its the nature of sport.

  2. Absolutely Shark. My point in saying Dav might be overrated doesn’t necessarily apply to this match. The stats stood up for him, he was clearly favorite, his loss was totally unexpected and no green fairie can whisper us when their form is gonna break.

    I was only wondering about future matches, where players like Dav might have good prices for a lay more often. Of course when they’re up against players in a bad swing like Dodig the question is not even on the table. Stats and player forms have to be taken into account match by match.

    I cannot stop saying how great the blog and tips are (I’m starting to sound like a twilight fangirl XD).

    Thank you Shark and lots of greens for everyone! 🙂

    1. Don’t worry I wasn’t taking offence. Davy is a player who is past his best. I don’t see him getting back to the form that he used to show in almost every match but his talent means he can still show glimpses of that form for 1 or 2 matches. Melzer is another player like this and also James Blake who can perform well in America but his knee injury has reduced the number off tournaments he has been able to play over the last couple of years.

      Then you get players like Haas and to some extent Nalbandian who were away for varying periods of time and yet are able to compete with the bext in the world.

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