Monte Carlo 2013 – Thursday

Fognini has beaten Berdych on clay before but it was 4 years ago. Whilst he has shown flashes of brilliance this week I don’t feel his over all game will be strong enough to get the win.

Berdych hasn’t quite been at his best but the courts are playing fairly fast which is in his favour. I feel his SP of 1.28 is a little low but if we can grab 1.50 it looks like a decent entry.

The first set could be tight but if Berdych can take it I think the second could be over quickly.

Update: Berdych never really got going and faded badly in the second set.

Fognini won 6-4, 6-2.

 

After an average start yesterday Melzer played some superb tennis. He was helped by the fact that Almagro wasn’t really up for the fight once he went behind. Today Melzer faces Tsonga.

They have never played on clay. Tsonga leads the head to heads 2-1 although Melzer’s win came in an exhibition event in January last year.

Tsonga came under pressure in the first set against Davydenko and almost lost the set. He was far too strong in set 2.

Hopefully Melzer pushes Tsonga and we get a higher entry price than SP 1.25 . I don’t see Melzer winning this one.

Update: No real contest. Tsonga won 6-3, 6-0.

 

We have a healthy price on Murray for his match with Wawrinka. On any other surface the SP isn’t likely to have been above 1.25 but clay is Stan’s favourite surface. He has won both his matches fairly comfortably and especially against Montanes who I had hoped would continue to serve as he had against Monfils. It wasn’t to be and after trying hard for a couple of games he rolled over.

Murray played well against Roger Vasselin winning in straight sets. He seems to have prepared for the clay season a little better this year under the guidance of Lendl who knows how to win on the dirt. He won the French Open 3 times.

Murray leads the head to heads 8-4 although they haven’t played on clay since 2008. I think he will trade higher than 1.43 and will look for 1.60 to 1.65 for my first entry. I think this one could go close but Murray will come through.

Update: Wawrinka stepped upto the plate. Murray has never looked so clueless.

Murray lost the number 2 rank with this loss and rightly so. Whilst Wawrinka played well he was boosted by the fact that Murray wasn’t competing.

Easy win for Wawrinka 6-1, 6-2.

    Trading Guide

6 thoughts on “Monte Carlo 2013 – Thursday”

  1. Hi Paul, do you have any thoughts on the Gasquet v Cilic match? I am leaning towards Gasquet if I can get an entry point nearer 2. I was surprised to see they have never played.

    Thanks

    1. Hi,
      Tough one to call but I am slightly favouring Cilic. He seems more reliable. Gasquet is tending to switch off in second sets. Will be a good watch though.

        1. Well that was a mixed day – Gasquet and Monaco worked out well for me – Niemenen, I lost my nerve with and bailed early.

          Just a question for you – regarding Berdych, I got on him at 1.7 which I was pleased with but made the cardinal sin of getting distracted at the wrong time and tried to trade out and left my computer, but obviously didn’t get matched, which I am kicking myself about. By the time I returned he had lost the set and I ended up with a nasty red. Just interested at what point you decided to get out of the trade for Berdych, assuming you got in in the first place? I am assuming before the end of the first set?

          Thanks for the continued guidance!

          Bad day at the office for Murray or was Stan on form – I didn’t manage to see it?

          1. I had backed him after the initial break at 1.50. As he broke back straight away I was in the green for most of the set. I advised in the chatroom that if it got to 4-4 that I would reduce my position. I actually laid off all my liability for a free bet on Berdych. The reasons I did this was that he wasn’t looking solid at all and there was a fair chance that he would be broken.

  2. Aha, I missed the first break of seven so only got in later in the set. The early bird and all that…

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