12:00 – Gil v Stakhovsky
Rankings are 82 and 38. Heasd to heads are 1-1. they have never played on clay.
Stak doesn’t like the claycourts too much. he has lost his last 5 matches on the dirt. His record against top100 players on clay is 3 wins from 21.
Gil showed some decent form last week. In contrast to Stakhovsky he is a claycourter who should be able to outplay his opponent today.
Stakhovsky has only held serve 66% of the time in the last 12 months on clay to Gil’s 71% . His return of serve stats are poor too.
I will be backing Gil with half stake from the start to see how they start. If I can add the rest a bit higher up then I’ll be happy. Remember if you back from the start you need your plan in place for what to do if it goes wrong. Check out the members area of TradeShark Tennis.
Update: Gil won 6-1, 6-3.
14:00 – Davydenko v Haase
Rankings are 41 and 63. They have never played.
Davydenko keeps giving us tiny glimses of the form that made him one of the best players in the world but then he crumbles. I don’t think the problems are now physical with him but mental.
I feel the market is reacting to his name and former reputation which is why he is 1.41 for this match.
Haase has a far superior record on clay over the last 12 months. If we include all tours he has 27 wins from 34 matches to Davy’s 2 wins from 5.
Haase has held serve 83% of the time to Davydenko’s 72% and the Dutchman has better return of serve stats on this surface.
I will be laying Davydenko from the start. I think the slower surface will show up his lack of consistency and also his serve will be less potent. On hard courts he still has the ability to throw in a few decent service games but the dirt takes that away from him.
Update: Haase started very poorly and was soon a break behind. We could lay again around 1.16 and Haase staged a comeback. Haase took the set and won the match 7-5, 4-6, 6-4.