Monte Carlo – Thursday

11:30 – Robredo v Troicki

Rankings are 29 and 16. Head to heads are 2-1 to Robredo ( 1-1 on clay )

Robredo has put his poor form behind him and is back near his best. Verdasco helped him a great deal yesterday but Robredo put him under pressure from the first game. He is supremely consistent at the moment and confidence is high.

Troicki started well against Fognini but whilst Fognini is in decent form himself the Serb should have been able to finish him in straight sets. Any lapses in concentration should be punished by his opponent today.

In the last 6 months both have held serve over 80% of the time but if you look at only matches on clay Troicki’s percentage drops to 62%. Troicki has better stats on return of serve although I often get frustrated when trading his matches as when he has a chance to put pressure on the server he goes for the big spectacular winner rather than keeping the ball in play.

On current form I have to go with Robredo.

I’ll be backing him with half stake from the start and look to add the rest once he has shown he is on top. If he struggles in the early games a half stake back allows me to keep any red figure under control.

Update: The match didn’t start well with Robredo being broken in the very first game. He broke back immediately and Troicki was never really in contention. In the second set it was going with serve when Robredo called for the medic in the middle of a game. He received treatment for a leg injury. He continued with the game but a few minutes later  he retired.

Troicki won 3-6, 2-1(retired)

 

 

15:30 – Melzer v Almagro

Rankings are 9 and 12. Head to heads are 2-1 to Melzer although Almagro won their only previous match on clay.

Melzer came back from the dead yesterday. He was his usual poor self in the first set and towards the end of it  looked like he may quit when he had to take a rest due to a fast heart beat. With everyone thinking he was going to quit he came back to take the next 2 sets and play some much improved tennis.

Almagro faced match point against Maximo Gonzalez in their third set tie break so he may feel lucky to be still in the tournament. I think that is bad news for Melzer as the Spaniard will be boosted by coming through such a close match.

Will Melzer have heart problems again today? He didn’t seem too concerned when it happened yesterday which suggests its an on going condition. He seemed fine in the 2nd and third sets.

Almagro definately has the better pedigree on the dirt courts and won’t make the mistakes that Haase did yesterday to allow Melzer  to get back into the game and gain some confidence.

Almagro has won 20 of his last 21 matches on clay. Back Almagro from the start.

Update: I didn’t watch this match as it started about the same time as the IPL match. Melzer took the first set easily. In the second set Almagro got an early break but Melzer drew level and broke at the end to take the match.

Melzer won 6-1, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

4 thoughts on “Monte Carlo – Thursday”

  1. Melzer looking somewhere close to his best again and the turnaround in his form has been remarkable.
    To defeat Almagro so convincingly on clay is some achievement even if he has been under par of late.

    Don’t beat yourself up too much though as I’m sure there weren’t many who saw this coming

    1. Thanks for that 🙂
      I’ve been doing this so long and getting enough wrong that I don’t often beat myself up anymore. I still expect to get most right and cringe a little during the trading session when one of my predictions doesn’t go as expected. Melzer will need to come up with a few more performances like that to regain traders confidence.
      Good luck with the new chatroom and forum by the way 🙂

  2. Thanks mate.

    The forum is a new idea really and I don’t know what to expect on that front.
    Doing too much can interfere with the actual trading!

    We’ll see what happens but the chat room is going well so thanks for that.

    I was impressed with Melzer yesterday when he woke up and half expected a return to form from him on clay.
    He has had a bad year off it so hopefully he will string a few performances together although you have to expect the usual capitulation to Federer tomorrow.

    We will see.

    Ferrer looks a huge price on the set betting to me too and I imagine that will be somewhere in the email tomorrow.

    Good luck with the Beginners Guide too, I’ve heard mixed reports but seems to be going well for you.

    1. From experience I think its probably best to have a forum OR a chatroom as people tend not to use both as much as you’d expect when you set things up.

      Re: the guide, I’ll send you a copy. Bear in mind it is a beginners guide and intended to give new traders an insight into how the amrkets work etc. Unfortunately some poeple these days think that because I am a full timer that by paying 29 quid they will learn all they need to know to do the same. It clearly says on the sales page that this isnt the case and that they have to put a lot of time and effort in themselves. I also fnd that the majority of people who criticise the guide haven’t even read it! Its more that they find me, personally , irritating which I think is hilarious. I quietly love the fact that I can get up peoples noses so much without even speaking to them 😉
      I get around 40-50 emails a day from members who are prepared to put the effort in and I mentor them one to one.
      The guide has been going nearly 2 years now and has sold around 1200 copies. The number of refund requests is still firmly in single figures which tells me all I need to know.

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