Due to start at 8 pm.
Tsitsipas 1.74, De Minaur 2.28
Tsitsipas leads their previous matches 3-1. The last time they met was in Tokyo last month. That was also indoors and Tsitsipas won in 3 sets, De Minaur’s win was on grass in June last year. He won in straight sets.
Both players have won 64% of their matches this year. Tsitsipas’ win percentage indoors isn’t that much better than De Minaur’s but he has played a lot more matches.
De Minaur won all his round robin matches and lost just 1 set. In his semi final with Jaume Munar he lost the opening set in a tie break and won the match in 5 sets.
Tsitsipas has also gone unbeaten in the tournament. He also lost just 1 set in the round robin matches and was also taken to 5 sets in his semi final. He was 2-1 up against Rublev but failed to close out the match in 4 sets.
I have to favour Tsitsipas but this looks like being a long match. Back him around 1.85.