Oz Open – Week 2, Monday night

The matches really thin out in the second week of a Major. This means you don’t get to pick and choose your matches. So we have just 2 ATP and 2 WTA matches. As usual I’ll post about the ATP but will also be trading the WTA games too and will be in the chatroom.

02:00  – Wawrinka v Federer

Rankings are 19 and 2. Head to heads are 7-1 to Federer who has won their last 4 matches.

 Wawrinka has been in great form so far and is yet to lose a set. He has beaten both Monfils and Roddick when he will have started as underdog.

Federer, as you’d expect has also played well but was taken to 5 sets by Fremchman Simon and lost a set in the last round to Tommy Robredo who admittedly seems to have sorted his slump in form.

Does Wawrinka have enough to beat Fed? One thing that would be helpful is  information on how Fed approaches a match and some of the strategies that he might deploy. Wawrinka now has that information as his new coach used to be Federer’s coach. Federer hasn’t stayed at the top of the mens game for so long by playing the same way consistently. You can often see him trying new ideas which keep his opponents guessing.

The head to head of 7-1  has to play on Wawrinka’s mind. If he goes a set down will he really believe he can win?

Federer is defending champion and will be using every trick in the book to get past a confident Wawrinka.

Federer starts at 1.30 on Betfair. Looking at their past matches that would seem a fair price but if Wawrinka can maintain his momentum then he has a chance of at least taking a set from the world number 2. Trading wise we would want that set to be the opening one. If Federer goes a set up then the price isn’t going to move as readily as it will if Wawrinka breaks first in the first set. Ofcourse we can lay Fed if he wins the first set.

Its always difficult to go against Fed. Wawrinka is certainly capable of taking a lead so laying Federer from the start is an option. I may lay him and hope for an early break from Wawrinka. If he doesn’t get that early break then his chance has passed so I won’t be staying in that trade too long.

An alternative is to back Federer from the start with half stakes. Add the rest after a break from either player.

If Wawrinka does manage to get an early break and holds on to the set then back Federer at the start of the second as I can’t see him losing over 5 sets.

 

 

08:30 – Berdych v Djokovic

Rankings are 6 and 3. Head to heads are 4-1 to Djokovic.

Djokovic no longer deserves the nickname “Djoker”. This name stuck when he was criticised for  mimicking some of the top tour players a few years back. This knocked his confidence and he became very serious on court and its good to see him starting to relax.

This is a night match which will favour Djokovic as he doesn’t like the heat and adds to Berdych’s problems.

Berdych has started the season very well and seems to be more comfortable with his higher ranking ( maybe he tried self hypnosis! ).

Djokovic has moved onto the same level as Nadal and Federer and finds a way to win the tough matches. He is my pick to win the tournament so he has to be my pick tonight.

A starting price of 1.36 is maybe a touch low and I think the same options apply as for the Fed/Wawrinka match. Djokovic can sometimes start slow so laying him from the start and giving Berdych the chance to get an early break is an option.

Or back Djokovic from the start with half stakes and add the other half after a break from either player. For this one I am going with the second option.

Djokovic to win in 4 sets.

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