Men's Quarter Final Day

Haas v Djokovic

Haas won their last match which was just a couple of weeks ago so Djokovic will be out for revenge. If the heatwave continues today that will favour Haas. Over a best of 5 sets match I would expect Djoker to come out on top but don’t be surprised if it goes to 4 sets. The market obviously favours the number 4 ranked player at 1.42 but I expect that price to move out. Ideally we want Haas to win the first set to then back Djoker. His price then would be around 1.95 to 2.0

Safer strat as ever is the 15-40 but if Djokovic gets off to a fast start then wait for the break should work well too.

For me, Djoker to win in 4 sets.

Update: Hmm, apart from that last sentence I called it fairly well! Another indication of why trading beats gambling. This was the one Q final that I didnt watch. I am assuming that a combination of the heat and Haas’ continued good form brought about his win in 4 sets. L ay of Djoker from the start would have been profitable as long as you didnt then take my advice and back him when he went a set down!


Karlovic v Federer

Fed’s price is at 1.11 and the first set could be all about Karlovic’s serve. The first set is likely to go to a tie break and therefore expect Fed’s price to move out a little. If Karlovic manages to take the first set you could get on Fed at about 1.30 . Karlovic has beaten Fed once and the 2 sets he won were both tie breaks.

Obviously Fed is expected to win. He is pretty much back to his old form but he needs to find a way to deal with the Croat’s huge serve.

Watch the game. If its tight in the frst set, back Fed when his price has risen. Fed to win in 3 or 4 sets.

Update: No big surprises here. Fed won in 3 sets and it was very comfortable. Karlovic seemed totally overawed by his oponent and the situation. His serve was good but his volleying was just terrible. Time and time again he worked an opening only to push a straight forward volley long. Great experience for the guy though. He’ll be stronger for it.


Hewitt v Roddick 

This should be a great match to watch! Roddick has won both their 2009 matches but Hewitt is enjoying a return to form. Roddick’s serve is starting to do its job and I can see this match going the distance.

Interestingly, Roddick has lost a set in 3 of his matches and each time it has been the 3rd set. That could suggest that he isnt as mentally focussed as he will need to be to challenge for the title. In contrast, Hewitt is totally focussed and, helped by his small army of supporters he could pull off a surprise today.

Roddick’s price of 1.44 is no value in my opinion. I am a Roddick fan and expect him to win but this isnt going to be easy for the American. 4 or possibly 5 sets with Roddick scraping through would be my prediction but wait for the break of serve before backing. Not sure there will be many breaks though so 15-40 will only bring small profits.

Update: Roddick won 6-4 in the 5th set. What a match! A few more breaks of serve than expected. 15-40 actually worked well.


Murray v Ferroro

Murray’s price is 1.12 . He beat Ferrero a couple of weeks ago and it was a very one sided game. Haven’t seen anything to suggest today will be any different. As long as Murray has recovered from his last match, which I’m sure he has, he will be looking to despatch Ferrero in 3 sets to save energy. Can’t see anything else but a Murray win. His price has been pushed so low partly by UK punters lumping on so he might move out a little if the first set is close but dont expect much movement.

You will get better value from backing Murray in the sets market for 3-0.

Update: Murray won in 3 sets. Ferrero never really looked like hurting him. Murray’s price moved out to around 1.18 in the first set without there being a break of serve. If a player’s price has been pushed lower by patriotic backers it will usually find its correct level as the traders take over. A decent performance by the Scot. He did what he needed to do and will be well rested for his semi.

Forums, Knobcheese and "Where did THAT come from??"

Some of you may know me from the forum. There has been a little discussion as to why I have stopped posting. No tips in this post, so if thats what you’re here for, don’t read this 🙂

I had been a Moderator on the forum for a while. I was asked if I wanted to be a mod as I spent so long on there! I like to think I took it seriously and treated people with respect (whenever possible!) I never set myself up as a trading genius and openly told people how long I had been trading. There weren’t many tennis traders on the forum and when newbies asked a question that i thought I could answer then I would do so. I was learning tennis trading as I went along and as I learned something new I would share it with the forum members.

I didn’t learn anything tennis related on there  but did pick up several tips on trading other sports, especially cricket so i was happy with the deal. I posted a few videos to try to explain what I was passing on. Generally my posts and vids were well received. On an open forum you can’t please everyone and shouldn’t worry if you don’t!

Now, I dont have a problem with criticism. Quite the opposite. As a trader, if you think you are always right you will hang onto positions instead of getting out. But there are ways of doing it. For quite a while the forum was a fun place to hang out, whether it was between trades or during trades for cricket and football. People were genuinely there to help each other and there was a lot of banter with the vast majority of it being light hearted and sometimes bloody hilarious!

Over the last few months there has been an increasing under-current of negativity. People were more interested in putting each other down or proving that another members was scamming everyone ( even if they werent! ). It had happened from time to time before but now it was becoming the norm.I had been thinking for a while that it was time to leave the forum and concentrate on my own trading and the website. As I had enjoyed the forum for several months I was reluctant to leave.

The negativity grew steadily and i was ready to go. Then one day one of the regs posted a question about tennis trading. I was at work and didnt really have the time to be posting but I did anyway. I responded to the original question. I didnt think it was a terrible response. I gave my opinion in good faith. Out of nowhere a new guy jumped all over my post. Now, as i have said I don’t have a problem with being criticised. If I was the kind of guy who put others down, strutted around like i owned the place and generally treat people like shit then the response to my post may have been justified. Rather than just explain why I was wrong this guy used a very aggresive, confrontational tone. He criticised me as a trader, as a person and as a Moderator saying that I should take my position more seriously. He seemed to have made his mind up about all aspects of my personality based on a handful of posts. rathr than the 1700+ that had gone before.  I was surprised by how personal his tone was and wondered, “where did THAT come from??”. Now regarding the basics of his criticism, he had a point. I had responded to the original query and perhaps should have put more thought and time into it. But all that was lost to me because of the way he posted it. Now, this is an online forum and you have to expect things like this but I felt it was an indication of how the forum was going and if I am honest I was pissed off that such a negative post was going to be the catalyst to me leaving the forum.

I shouldn’t have responded at all. I actually thought I was quite restrained! I sent back a couple of posts in response before I stopped myself. What was the point? This was what he wanted and I usually have a bit more class than that. I apologise to the poster as it seemed that my calling him Knobcheese  upset him 🙂

So that post helped me make the final decision to not post on there again. There are some fantastic guys on the forum. Great traders and amazing senses of humour but for me, the fun of being on there is dramatically reduced by the petty sniping, dick waving and testosterone that is taking over. A few guys send me PM’s on there so i will check back for a while but once people stop PMing me there will be no reason to log in.

Maybe he will turn out to be the saviour of the forum. He’s obviously an intelligent guy but, to me, he will always be affectionately known as Knobcheese 😉

Ladies' day

Safina v Lisicki

The number 1 seed showed a lot of character yesterday to come through against Mauresmo. Such a difference to the player that fell apart in the French Open final. That 3 setter will have taken a lot out of her and Lisicki is no mug. The German girl has beaten top players in her last 2 games and her confidence will be sky high.

I’m tempted by the BF price of 1.48 for Safina. I feel she’ll come though the match but she won’t have it all her own way. 15-40 will work well, as will wait for the break but the best value is in backing Safine from the start. Could easily be a 3 setter.

Edit: Contradicted myself there! I was expecting a 3 setter so best value would have been when Lisicki won a set! (twit)

Update:Safina won in 3 sets as predicted. 15-40 will have given a nice green. Wait for the serve would have worked too as long as you greened up after the first set.

V Williams v Radwanska

Personally I won’t be trading this one. Partly because we’re going to Lake windermere and partly because the only value is if you think Williams will struggle early on and her price of 1.13 will move out. Anything can happen ofcourse but I can’t see it.

Update: Williams won 6-1, 6-2 . Enough said 🙂

Azarenka v S Williams

This one could be interesting. Azarenka won their last match just a couple of months ago. Williams’ price of 1.31 will move out. I wouldn’t even be suprised if this went to 3 sets. Both women are capable of breaking the other’s serve so 15-40 could be the safest strategy. I’d be laying Williams from the start as I can see some profit there.

Update: Called that one wrong as regards laying Williams at the start. She won in 2 sets. 15-40 will have worked a treat though 😉

Schiavone v Dementieva

Dementieva should come through this one. How easy it is will depend on how strong she is mentally. She has a tendancy to wobble when you least expect it! Her price of 1.33 is a little short and I can see the first set taking her out to 1.50ish. Schiavone can be dangerous on her day and she has been playing very well but I can only see one eventual winner. 15-40 as always will work well, as will wait for the break.

Update: In this one too, the favourite didn’t struggle at the start. Dementieva won in 2 sets and got off to a very quick start in the first set going, I think 4-0 up. Both suggested strats would have worked. If I had layed her from the start I would have hedged out for a loss after she broke serve and then backed her 🙂