Haas v Djokovic
Haas won their last match which was just a couple of weeks ago so Djokovic will be out for revenge. If the heatwave continues today that will favour Haas. Over a best of 5 sets match I would expect Djoker to come out on top but don’t be surprised if it goes to 4 sets. The market obviously favours the number 4 ranked player at 1.42 but I expect that price to move out. Ideally we want Haas to win the first set to then back Djoker. His price then would be around 1.95 to 2.0
Safer strat as ever is the 15-40 but if Djokovic gets off to a fast start then wait for the break should work well too.
For me, Djoker to win in 4 sets.
Update: Hmm, apart from that last sentence I called it fairly well! Another indication of why trading beats gambling. This was the one Q final that I didnt watch. I am assuming that a combination of the heat and Haas’ continued good form brought about his win in 4 sets. L ay of Djoker from the start would have been profitable as long as you didnt then take my advice and back him when he went a set down!
Karlovic v Federer
Fed’s price is at 1.11 and the first set could be all about Karlovic’s serve. The first set is likely to go to a tie break and therefore expect Fed’s price to move out a little. If Karlovic manages to take the first set you could get on Fed at about 1.30 . Karlovic has beaten Fed once and the 2 sets he won were both tie breaks.
Obviously Fed is expected to win. He is pretty much back to his old form but he needs to find a way to deal with the Croat’s huge serve.
Watch the game. If its tight in the frst set, back Fed when his price has risen. Fed to win in 3 or 4 sets.
Update: No big surprises here. Fed won in 3 sets and it was very comfortable. Karlovic seemed totally overawed by his oponent and the situation. His serve was good but his volleying was just terrible. Time and time again he worked an opening only to push a straight forward volley long. Great experience for the guy though. He’ll be stronger for it.
Hewitt v Roddick
This should be a great match to watch! Roddick has won both their 2009 matches but Hewitt is enjoying a return to form. Roddick’s serve is starting to do its job and I can see this match going the distance.
Interestingly, Roddick has lost a set in 3 of his matches and each time it has been the 3rd set. That could suggest that he isnt as mentally focussed as he will need to be to challenge for the title. In contrast, Hewitt is totally focussed and, helped by his small army of supporters he could pull off a surprise today.
Roddick’s price of 1.44 is no value in my opinion. I am a Roddick fan and expect him to win but this isnt going to be easy for the American. 4 or possibly 5 sets with Roddick scraping through would be my prediction but wait for the break of serve before backing. Not sure there will be many breaks though so 15-40 will only bring small profits.
Update: Roddick won 6-4 in the 5th set. What a match! A few more breaks of serve than expected. 15-40 actually worked well.
Murray v Ferroro
Murray’s price is 1.12 . He beat Ferrero a couple of weeks ago and it was a very one sided game. Haven’t seen anything to suggest today will be any different. As long as Murray has recovered from his last match, which I’m sure he has, he will be looking to despatch Ferrero in 3 sets to save energy. Can’t see anything else but a Murray win. His price has been pushed so low partly by UK punters lumping on so he might move out a little if the first set is close but dont expect much movement.
You will get better value from backing Murray in the sets market for 3-0.
Update: Murray won in 3 sets. Ferrero never really looked like hurting him. Murray’s price moved out to around 1.18 in the first set without there being a break of serve. If a player’s price has been pushed lower by patriotic backers it will usually find its correct level as the traders take over. A decent performance by the Scot. He did what he needed to do and will be well rested for his semi.