ATP Rome Masters, Final: Djokovic v Nadal

Due to start at 3 pm

Djokovic 2.68, Nadal 1.59

Djokovic leads their previous matches 28-25. Their most recent meeting was in the final of the Australian Open in January. Djokovic won on a hard court in straight sets.  Nadal won their last 2 clay matches. Overall results are a little better for Djokovic in the last 12 months and also in 2019. Both have excellent clay records in last 12 months. This season Nadal has won 13 of 16 matches. Djokovic won 11 of 12.

Djokovic was very comfortable in his first 2 matches this week but came under a lot of pressure from Del Potro in the quarter final. Del Potro took the opening set and set two went to a tie break. Djokovic saved 2 match points in the tie break and won the set.  A single break in the third set was enough for him to take the match.  He also needed 3 sets against Schwartzman in the semi final.

 

Nadal has not lost a set so far. Verdasco had 3 break points at 4-4 in the first set of their quarter final match but couldn’t take them and didn’t win another game in the match.  Tsitsipas kept both the sets tight in the semi final. Nadal took each set with a single break of serve.

Stats for the tournament favour Nadal. Djokovic usually steps up his game against Nadal but I still have to favour Nadal to win. He was very disappointing in the Australian Open final and will be out for revenge today. We have a good chance of 3 seeing sets.

Back Nadal around 1.90.

 

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WTA Rome Open, Quarter Final: Mladenovic v Sakkari

Due to start at 6:30 pm

Mladenovic 1.93, Sakkari 2.04

This will be their first meeting.

Overall results favour Sakkari in the last 12 months and also in 2019. Both players have strong clay results but Sakkari has the edge in the last 12 months.

Mladenovic came through the qualifying rounds. She beat Garcia, Bencic and Barty in the main draw. That’s an impressive list of victories. Mladenovic has really picked up her game this week. Her current ranking doesn’t reflect her ability though does reflect her poor form in recent months.

Kristina Mladenovic

Kristina Mladenovic

Sakkari also came through the qualifying rounds. She beat Pavlyuchenkova and Kontaveit in the main draw. In the 3rd round she beat Kvitova who retired when 4-0 down in set 3.

Stats for the tournament favour Mladenovic in everything except service holds. Sakkari leads that stat 86% to 82% of service games held. I favour Mladenovic to win a tight match. Back her around 2.20.

Update: Mladenovic was broken early and went 1-4 down. She came back to take the set 7-5. She broke first in set 2 but after that her serve deserted her.
Sakkari won 5-7, 6-3, 6-0.

 

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