Paris masters – Quarter Finals

15:00 – Davydenko v Llodra

Rankings are 11 and 34. Head to heads are 4-1 to Davydenko although Llodra won their last match in 2008.

I expected Davydenko to win against Berdych but didn’t think it would go to three sets. I didn’t give Llodra much chance to win against Djokovic.

So, based on their last matches I would have Llodra as slight favourite to win this one. He is playing infront of a noisy home crowd. Davydenko is used to not having the crowd on his side but home advantage has to give  Llodra a boost.

Over the last month they have held serve 83% and 89%. Llodra’s serve in his last 2 matches has been superb. Davy’s can be great one game and then double faults in the next.

Davydenko has by far the better stats on return of serve.

Recently Davydenko has struggled against the top players and I can’t see him winning this one.

Back Llodra on serve or lay Davydenko from the start. I certainly espect Llodra to take the first set.



20:30 – Murray v Monfils

Rankings are 4 and 14. Head to heads are 3-1 to Murray.

Murray is such a frustrating player. Against Nalbandian he started slowly and his body language was poor. He seemed to have a problem with his leg one minute and his wrist the next. Because of his poor body language when he called for the medic for his wrist the market panicked and thought he was going to quit ( although why whould he have changed his shirt if he was even thinking of quitiing??). From that point on he played much better and obviously took the match.

Monfils has hobbled his way to the quarter finals. Still playing the clown at times hitting shots between his legs or from behind his back but his serve is saving him when the pressure is on.

Monfils will be very motivated to do well here and will do whatever it takes to reach the semis.

Murray hasn’t played consistently well but has got the job done. Ranked at number 4 in the world he has to have one eye on the final.

More than likely that we will see three sets here as neither player can sustain a high level from one set to the next.

Serves have been held 81% and 85%. Murray’s points won against first serves are just 22% which is low ( Monfils 32%).

Monfils will probably start faster as the pain from his injury won’t be as bad. Later in the match he will rely on the lift from the crowd and his fighting spirit.

Watch the opening couple of games to see how each player is serving. I’ll be looking to back both on serve but get out fast if they go behind. Keep any red as small as possible as there will be swings in both directions before we know who’s going through to the semis.

Slight edge to Murray.

    Trading Guide

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