Due to start at 3 pm
Kontaveit 2.92, Kvitova 1.51
Kvitova leads their previous matches 3-2. They last met in Brisbane in January. Kontaveit won on a hard court in 2 tight sets. They are 1-1 on clay. Kontaveit won the most recent clay match at the French Open in May 2018. She won in 2 tie breaks.
Overall results are good for both players but stronger for Kvitova. Both players’ clay results are excellent. Kvitova leads 94% v 81% matches won on clay in the last 12 months.
Kontaveit has played well this week. She played very strong matches to beat Garcia and Pavlyuchenkova in straight sets. In the quarter final she was 3-0 up in the 3rd set when Azarenka retired. Osaka withdrew from their semi final.
Kvitova made a really slow start against Sevastova in the quarter final. She was underdog against Kiki Bertens but won in 3 sets. Her first serve was excellent and she won 78% of points on it.
I have to favour Kvitova to win but I expect 3 sets. Back Kvitova round 1.75.
Update: Kvitova reached our target price early and went on to win in 2 close sets including a tie break in set 2.