GERRY WEBER OPEN
12:00 – Federer v Hewitt
Rankings are 2 and 32. Head to heads are 17 and 7. Fed has won their last 15 matches.
Federer is at 1.12 on Betfair. That has to be too low. Hewitt, the former world number 1, is serving superbly and is probably playing the best tennis that he has for a while. Federer has also been playing the expected great tennis but he has had 1 or 2 slip ups lately.
In a lot of their previous matches, even though Federer has come out on top there have been a fair few 7-6 or 7-5 sets. Put that fact together with Hewitt’s recent form and it has to be a lay of Federer from the start.
We have seen some strange results this week so its quite possible that Hewitt can take a set or even the match.
Update : Well done to Hewitt! I only watched the first set. I had layed Fed from the start but traded out when he broke serve for -£33. I thought I had more chance with the WTA final! While I was waiting for the women to start Hewitt looked like breaking back and I backed Fed and when he held serve I had reduced the loss to -£13. I left the match. Bugger!
Hewitt won 3-6, 7-6, 6-4.
AEGON CLASSIC, BIRMINGHAM
13:00 – LI v Sharapova
Rankings are 11 and 17. Head to heads are 5-1 to Sharapova although Li won their last match.
Both players had three set semi finals although the fact that Sharapova was taken to 3 sets by Alison Riske was perhaps more of a surprise.
She has been probably the most impressive of the two players this week but this should be a close match.
Li needs her first serve to work well as her second serve can be terrible. Sharapova has the experience to disrupt Li’s game and is probably favourite for the title. The Betfair market certainly agrees with me and Sharapova is 1.46 .
Scalping and 15-40 should work well. Don’t leave a trade open too long as neither can be relied upon to hold serve after a break.
Update: Sharapova broke in the first game but Li soon broke back. After that first game Li served really well and even her second serve was solid. She took the first set.
The second set was very one sided. I was hedging as i went along but towards the end I left a liability of -118 on Sharapova. When Li broke I backed her and let it run as I was confident in her serving ( on the day).
Li won 7-5, 6-1.
AEGON CHAMPIONSHIPS, QUEENS CLUB, LONDON
14:30 – Querrey v Fish
Rankings are 90 and 23. Head to heads are 1-0 to Fish.
Here are some words that I would never have expected to put on the blog………..I expect Mardy Fish to win this final.
He has certainly improved his game immensely over recent months and will now feel confident that he can give most players a run for their money. In his semi final against Lopez he served superbly and his ground strokes were of a high standard too.
Querrey has the massive serve and as we have come to expect he served very well in his semi against Schuettler. However the rest of his game lacked the same power and if Fish can read the serve and get the points into extended rallies then he is a massive favourite today.
Fish has been the smarter player this week and has used his experience well.
Both men can be backed on serve especially in the opening set which could easily end up in a tie break.
Update: Very tight match with both players serving well most of the time.
I felt Fish was going to win it which perhaps clouded my judgement. I traded it badly and when it looked like Fish was going to come back to 1 set all I decided to hedge for a loss of 382. Wasn’t happy as that wiped out my profit for the day and a little more.
But then Fish cocked a service game up when serving for the second set. Querrey then held serve to get to a set up and 6-5 up. I backed for 1K. I knew I was taking a risk but Fish’s head was down and Querrey had won the first set tie break easily. If Fish had won the set I was looking at a red of at least 500 but I went into it with my eyes open.
It couldn’t have gone better with Fish going 0-40 down and Querrey had 3 match points. He then fell over and hurt himself ( good for me but not for him, obviously).
He won 1 point but Querrey got the set and the match.
Querrey won 7-6, 7-5.
Not recommended as a trading style, 🙁 . I relied on experience and luck was on my side too.