Thursday’s matches

Tomic v Dolgopolov:

Head to heads are 2-0 to Dolgopolov. Both were played in Australia with the last one being in January this year.

Tomic hass improved his game significantly sice then. He still has  a lot to learn but his win over Fish in the last round proves that he is learning fast.

Dolgopolov isn’t playing his doubles partner today so has a little less control over how the match will pan out. Having traded his match yesterday I am convinced it was decided before the match that Ramos would win the opening set. Market behaviour suggested that Ramos cocked up in a couple of games when he was “meant” to break. By the time the score was 5-6 with Dolgopolov serving it was their last chance to give Ramos the break without a tie break. A healthy lay of Dolgopolov took advantage nicely. Naturally a lay of Ramos after the set brought another very nice swing.

Dolgopolov starts as slight favourite at 1.80 but I think this will be Tomic’s first win against this opponent.

I have read that Dolgopolov has an outside chance of making the top 10 or even the World Tour Finals. The initials WTF seem quite appropriate. His style of play is to go for everything. If it comes off he looks fantastic and if he doesn’t he looks like a fool. I believe he was messing around with the result of that last match so I really don’t see him as someone either pushing for or being capable of top 10 this season.

Tomic’s win over Fish has to be taken into consideration and his confidence will be sky high. Maybe 3 sets but he is my pick.

(2.2)

Update: No video for this as it was moved to a covered court due to the rain. Both players holding easily for most of the firsts et then Tomic got the break. He was then broken back and broke again to take the set.

Not sure what happened after that but he failed to hold serve for two entire sets!

Dolgopolov won 5-7, 6-1, 6-0.

 

There aren’t many juicy prices around si I feel limited to a small number of matches. So…..

Simon v Ebden:

Simon starts at 1.28 which is no price to be backing him at here. They haven’t played before but Ebden is playing some decent tennis. He doesn’t have a good record against big servers but managed to dominate Ryan Harrison in the last round.

Its very noticeable that Simon often loses the opening set or at least starts slowly. In his last 10 matches he lost the first set a staggering 8 times!

There is a clear class difference between the two players and I fully expect Simon to win the match but it won’t be easy. I will be waiting for a higher price to back him and may even wait until the second set. ofcourse there is the option to lay him from the start as well.

(1.28)

Update: Simon as expected made a terrible start and was broken straight away. In the next couple of games when receiving he missed several break point chances. He lost the set easily.

I backed at the start of the second set and, again as predicted, he made the netetr start and went into a 3-0 lead. After a couple of scares he held on to take the set.

In the third set it was Ebden who won the first break to go 4-3 up but he was broken back and we went into a tie break. In the end it was Ebden who took a very tight tie break 10-8.

This match shows the problems with my proposed tips service. I have predicted the first 2 sets perfectly so as a trading tip its excellent. However as a betting tip its a fail.

    Trading Guide