US Open 2012 – week 2 Tuesday

I couldn’t keep my eyes open for the Murray / Raonic match but was surprised to see that Murray won in straight sets. Players who win Slams often build their momentum leading up to the second week so perhaps everything is going to plan for the Scot.

As expected Berdych and Cilic came through their matches although we didn’t see a price much above SP for Berdych  even though Almagro had a break point in the first set with the match still on serve. Berdych simply threw down an ace when he was in trouble.

We had a couple of minor surprises in the women’s tournament with Errani beating Kerber and Vinci beating Radwanska. Both the Italians won in straight sets.

Double bagels are rare but Serena Williams dished one out to Hlavackova. That certainly sends a message to the likes of Azarenka and Sharapova.

 

The six singles matches today are staggered or at least the start times are so we won’t have to watch 2 games at once quite as much as usual.

Azarenka leads the head to heads 6-0 against Sam Stosur. The Aussie has never even taken a set from her. The nearest she managed was a tie break back in 2008.

Stosur doesn’t often start as underdog but has lost the last 7 matches where she wasn’t favourite.

In her 4 matches in this tournament Azarenka has yet to lose more than 2 games in a set.

Its hard to see Stosur winning this one and I am praying for a slightly better price before jumping in on Azarenka.

Update: Closer than expected. Azarenka won 6-1, 4-6, 7-6.

 

Both Gasquet and Ferrer have come through the first week with very little fuss. They have lost just 1 set each so far.

Ferrer leads the head to heads 7-1 and has won their last 4 matches going back to 2009. In those 4 matches Gasquet didn’t win a set. 3 of the matches were on hard courts.

Gasquet has made it to the last 16 in 6 out of the last 7 Slams. I can only see one occasion when he made it beyond this stage which was Wimbledon 2007 where he played Fed in the semis. He just seems to run out of steam and a promising run fizzles out.

Ferrer starts at 1.33 and I will be happy with 1.50 . I’d expect him to win in 3 or perhaps 4 sets.

Update: Ferrer won 7-5, 7-6, 6-4.

 

Another match where the underdog has never won a set from today’s opponent is Sharapova v Bartoli. Even so, as they haven’t played since 2010 the starting price on Shara of 1.18 is skinny. Even the set betting market has Sharapova 2-0 at 1.54 so I’ll probably have something to eat while this match is on.

Update: Terrible start from Sharapova and Bartoli took a 4-0 lead before rain delayed the match. When they resumed Bartoli took the set but Sharapova came back to win in 3 sets.

Sharapova won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

 

Tipsarevic and Kohlschreiber have never finished a match away from clay courts. Their only hard court match went to Kohlschreiber when Tipsarevic retired after 4 games.

They have played just once this year on the clay in Dusseldorf and Tipsarevic won a tight 3 sets match 7-5 in the deciding set.

Kohlschreiber has had 2 three setters and a 4 set match. He beat Isner in the last round coming back from 2 sets to 1 down.  He narrowly got through his second round match against Paire in which he needed a 5th set tie break to beat the Frenchman.

Tipsarevic won his last 2 matches in straight sets but was taken to 5 sets in the first round by Ruffin.

Tipsarevic’s price of 1.54 seems a little crazy and I will be laying that. They both perform well in best of 5 set matches and this one will be close. I give the edge to Tipsarevic to win in 4 or 5 sets.

Update: Tipsarevic won 6-3, 7-6, 6-2.

 

It would be one of the upsets of the season if Wawrinka beats Djokovic. The Serb leads the head to heads 12 -2 and the last time Wawrinka beat him was 2006. ‘Nuff said.

Update: Wawrinka retired in the 3rd set.

Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 3-1(ret)

 

Roddick is still there in his last tournament.  He looks like he’s trying to go out in style with an easy straight sets win over Tomic and a 4 set win over Fognini who gave him some trouble the last time they played. He beat Del Potro the last time they met but the Argentinian won the other three. Their matches are always tight.

Del Potro has a wrist injury and Roddick a shoulder problem. The crowd will be a factor in this one although Del P won’t be as easily distracted as other players.

Too many unknown factors prior to the game and 1.30 seems low enough to lay from the start.

Update: Roddick took the opening set but it was Del Potro who took the match. An emotional end to Roddick’s career.

Del Potro won 6-7, 7-6, 6-2, 6-4.

    Trading Guide