US Open 2014 – week 1, day 4

More short prices again. Hopefully today is as fruitful as yesterday 😉

 

WTA 16:00 – Pennetta v Rogers

between 2008 and 2011 Pennetta reached the quarter finals 3 times. She missed the tournament in 2012 through injury and last year reached the semi final. It is safe to say that she likes conditions in New York.

Rogers has sprung to the attention of the tennis world this season with a string of excellent performances. She has had wild cards three times in previous years but this year qualified due to her improved ranking.

Rogers was one of my Shark Tips selections on Monday. Whilst she won in straight sets she made heavy weather of it. One of her strengths is her serve and her ability to come up with a big serve at break point. That serve let her down moreoften than has  become normal. if that continues today I expect Pennetta to have a field day on that second serve.

Pennetta starts at 1.39 which is a little short. i would price her at 1.50 to 1.55 and I will wait for a higher price on her before backing. An early break for Rogers would be perfect.

 

 

ATP, 16:00 – Querrey v Garcia Lopez

Garcia Lopez was able to take advantage of Lu’s fatigue from a long week last week in Winston Salem where he reached the semi final. Today he plays the other losing semi finalist.

Querrey played clay courter Maximo Gonzalez in the first round and his own fatigue was evident by the fact that he struggled to beat Gonzalez and scraped through in 5 sets. A five setter on top of last week won’t help Querrey’s fitness.

They have played 4 times with Querrey winning every time. Just two of them were in the last 2 seasons and went to 3 sets.

Despite the fact that Querrey has had a day’s rest since his 3 set match I think the cumulative affect carried over from last week will give Garcia the edge he needs to turn those 3 set losses to a victory.

Querrey obviously relies heavily on his serve. Serving requires a great deal of effort both physically and mentally and when the body is tired the mind wanders and errors increase.

Querrey starts at 1.57 . There is no reason why he won’t be competitive in the first set or two so we have a good chance of getting a lower price on Querrey so we can lay him.

 

 

WTA, 20:30 – Vandeweghe v Suarez Navarro

Vandeweghe beat Vekic in 3 sets in the first round. She was outplayed in the opening set and threw her racquet to the floor on at least a couple of occasions. Fortunately for her Vekic started to make errors in the next set and Coco took the match quite comfortably in the end. Against a more consistent opponent she would have been in trouble.

Suarez Navarro has made a few slow starts recently but has managed to get the results. She reached the quarter finals in Montreal and third round in Cincinnati. once she gets going she will be consistent enough to beat Vandeweghe.

We should see a better price on Suarez Navarro than her SP of 1.62 . She reached the quarter finals last year and i think she will come through this one but will probably need 3 sets.

 

 

ATP, 22:30 – Kyrgios v Seppi

Kyrgios made a great start against Youzhny but when the Russian made a comeback and was leading in the 4th set Kyrgios looked a beaten man. his body language was very poor and I got the feeling that if Youzhny was able to take the 4th set that the 5th would be over quickly. Youzhny had an MTO before the end of that 4th set for treatment on his right shoulder and was broken while serving for the set.  Kyrgios took the set and the match in a tie break.

Seppi reached the third round last year so needs this win to avoid losing points. he made very short work of Stakhovsky in the first round.

Seppi doesn’t have the best record against big servers but oddly the record is better on hard courts.

Kyrgios’ serve can perhaps get him through this match. If he is honest with himself he knows he got lucky in the first round and if he does it could give him a boost to take advantage of that good fortune.

I don’t see it being a great match to watch but Kyrgios will scrape through.

 

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