It was a fantastic day yesterday from a trading point of view. Wawrinka and Azarenka were particularly profitable. Not so good on the straight bets with all 4 losing but coming close. They will turn in my favour very soon.
ATP, 19:00 – Cilic v Simon
These two have played 4 times. Simon has won every time. All four went to a deciding set including their two in grand slams. Only one of the matches was recent which was at the Australian Open in January.
When they have played on a fast court Cilic has always won the opening set.
Cilic starts at 1.62 . So far Simon hasn’t made his trademark slow start in any of his matches. he has lost the second set in each of his last two matches. Laying the first set winner looks like an excellent plan.
Both are playing well and it wouldn’t be a surprise if we again see 5 sets so we could see some nice price swings.
ATP, 21:00 – Dimitrov v Monfils
They have only completed one previous match which was at the US Open in 2011. Monfils won in straight sets. Monfils was at his career best ranking of 7th then. Three years later it is Dimitrov who is the top 10 player.
Dimitrov looked comfortable in his first 2 matches but started round 3 with a bagel from Goffin. He won the next 3 sets but that first set wasn’t impressive at all.
Monfils has won his 3 matches in 3 sets including a strong performance against Gasquet.
This should be an excellent match. Monfils has faced 15 break points in total. Dimitrov faced 16 break points against Goffin and 24 in total.
Monfils can trouble anyone when he is fit and taking his tennis seriously. Dimitrov’s bagel was probably just a blip as his other sets have been solid.
Dimitrov starts at 1.75 . Its a tough one to call but I think we will see Monfils below 1.50 .
ATP, 21:45 – Berdych v Thiem
Thiem said before the tournament that he would love to go deep into this tournament but that he was feeling quite tired after a long season. He beat Lacko and Lopez in straight sets but had to come back from 2 sets down against Gulbis. Gulbis had an injury in that one which helped Thiem but the young Austrian deserved the win.
Berdych has had a similar week with a 5 set match sandwiched between two straight set wins. Hewitt and Gabashvili didn’t put up much resistance but Klizan was able to push him all the way.
Berdych lost at this stage last year to Wawrinka. He had his best finish in 2012 when he reached the semi finals. That was his only time beyond the 4th round.
This is Thiems first visit. he has done extremely well to get this far but this one is a huge task. Berdych’s experience of the big matches is far superior and when the pressure is on I expect him to step through the gears. As with anyone else though Berdych can start slowly sometimes and he is bound to have a few nerves himself.
Berdych starts at 1.27 which is a fair price but i will wait and hope for that slow start before backing him.