21:00 – Federer v Del Potro
Rankings are 1 and 6 and head to heads are 6-0 to Fed. 3 of those were this year.
Probably the biggest match that DP has ever played in. He had the easier of the semi finals against an injured Nadal so tiredness shouldn’t be an issue.
Both men are strong on serve and I can see it being quite close. Federer is 1.31 on Betfair and that price will move out if DP can hold his serves in the first set. Laying at 1.31 and hedging at 1.50 will be possible as long as Fed doesn’t get an early break.
You can also back Fed on his service games and hedge when he wins each game. Backing DP’s serve could work well but I would watch the first game or 2 to see how he starts the match.
Be wary of using 15-40 on this match. I got caught out a couple of times while trading the semis when the server came back to 40-40.
Federer should come through in 3 or 4 sets.
Update: What a great match. Federer was in a different league in the first set but Del Potro came back in the 2nd to level it. Fed then came back from a break down in the 3rd and it looked like DP’s spirit was broken. He was sitting in his chair with his head in his hands. But his fighting spirit brought him back to 2-2. Fed seemed a bit dazed and had no answer for his opponent’s power. DP won the final set 6-3.
Well deserved first major title. I still think he looks like a lobotomy patient though…..
In the screenshot I hadn’t hedged as I had tried to nick a little more profit in the last game of the match…….