US Open – Week1 – Sat

19:00 – Verdasco v Haas

Rankings are 10 and 21. Head to head is 2-0 to Haas.

Verdasco is in a great run of form and won last week’s tournament. He ranks highly in the service stats with 72% of first serves in, 72% of first serve points won, and he wins 85% of his service games. He saves 66% of break points against him.

Haas wins 85% of his service games too although only 60% of first serves land in the court ( still a respectable figure). He also saves 66% of break points against him.

So it looks like backing  the server is an obvious option here.

Whilst receiving  1st serve, Verdasco wins 32% of points to Haas’ 28%.  Against 2nd serve Verdasco wins 53% of points to Haas’ 47%.

Verdasco wins 29% of games against serve to Haas’ 21%.

So on paper Verdasco has the edge and I recommend backing him on his serve. Also backing Haas on his serve is an option ( although laying Verdasco on Haas’ serve will be better as there will be more money matched on him).  Just don’t stay in the trade too long if they look to be in trouble.

I expect Verdasco to come through but would also expect at least 1 tie break.

Update: Verdasco win in 5 sets, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 1-6, 6-4. Very tight match and the graph looked like a mountain range. A bit scary if you traded to the end but the early sets gave some opportunities.

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21:00 – Soderling v Querrey

Rankings are 12 and 22. Head to head is 3-0 in Soderling’s favour.

Soderling wins 85% of his service games and I have tipped him to have a good tournament with an outside chance of upsetting the big boys.

I think he’ll be too strong for Querrey but the American will make a game of it.

Soderling is 1.59 on BF.

Back him on his service games and watch out for 15-40’s on the Querrey serve.

Update: Soderling won 6-2, 7-5, 6-7,6-1 . Great opportinuties for a profit especially when Querrey won a set.

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23:00 – Errani v Wickmayer

Rankings are 42 and 50. They have never met.

The market has Wickmayer as favourite and she is 1.58 on BF.  Errani’s having a good week so far and I expect her to keep this close. No reason why she cant win it.

I think 15-40 or scalping is the best way to trade it and we will see some decent price swings.

Update: Wickmayer won 6-3, 6-4. I didnt trade this one so dont know if it was a routine win or if there were breaks galore!

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