US Open – Week2 – Mon

A great choice of trading opportunities today!

16:00 – Bondarenko v Dulko

Rankings are 52 and 40. They have never met. Bonderenko is slight favourite on BF at 1.83 .

Dulko beat the other Bondereko girl a couple of rounds ago and she has looked in good form. She would be my slight favourite today. Both girls can be brilliant but also have the tendency to go AWOL in the middle of matches.

Could be tight and for that reason I recommend the 15-40 method.

Update: Oops! Thats the closest 6-0, 6-0 you’ll ever see. Maybe Dulko had a hair appointment back in Argentina…    Bondarenko goes through.

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16:00 – Soderling v Davydenko

Rankings are 12 and 8 and head to head is 4-2 to Soderling who has won their last 3 meetings.

At the start of the tournament I couldn’t decide between these 2 for the QFinal  spot but I now think Soderling has the edge. He’s well up for the task. I tipped him as the only possible “outsider” who could trouble the big boys.

Davydenko’s first serve success rate is a high 69% whereas Soderling’s is 59%. However Soderling wins a massive 85% of his service games to Davy’s 82%.  For me, the telling stat is in break points saved. Soderling saves 64% to Davydenko’s 58%.

Two solid servers. If they are both on form this could be a match of tie breaks.

I recommend backing Soderling on his serves and watching Davydenko’s first couple of service games to see how easily he holds.

Update: Soderling was 2 sets to 1 up when Davydenko retired. Sodering had made a shaky start and droppedhis serve in the opening game but came back to take the set 7-5. the next 2 sets were 3-6, 6-2.

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20:30 – Verdasco v Isner

Rankings are 10 and 55 and its the first time they have met. Verdasco is 1.50 on BF.

I expected to see Roddick in this match.  Isner put him out in the tie break in the 5th set which gives an indication of his current form.

Before I looked at the stats I was siding with Verdasco who is in top form but Isner’s stats on serve are amazing!

The first serve %’s are good at Verdasco 72% and Isner 65% but games won on serve are 85% for Verdasco and an incredible 90% for Isner. Break points saved? 66% for Verdasco and 70% for Isner!

That has me thinking that Verdasco’s price of 1.50 is way too low.  If Isner’s serve is at full strength this will be a very close match.

If you’re happy with the backing the server strategy then back both men on their own service games. I am still very very slightly favouring Verdasco but I expect his price to move out in the first set. I think his greater experience will serve him well for the final result.

Update: Verdasco made a shaky start and was soon 3-0 down.  Isner took the set 6-4. Then it was a battle of the serves. A break in each of the next 2 sets gave them both to Verdasco 6-4. When he broke early in the 4th set his price dropped to 1.05 and i closed the trade for a reasonable profit 🙂 Verdasco moved into the Q Finals by taking the 4th set 6-4.

Verdasco Isner - US Open
Verdasco Isner - US Open

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Midnight – Wozniacki v Kuznetsova

Rankings are 8 and 6 and the head to head is 2-1 to Kuznetsova. Betfair has them even.

Neither girl has lost a set so far and I wouldn’t dream of trying to pick a winner before the match. Should be tight and could be a 3 setter.

Use the 15-40 method and look for opportunities to let a back bet run to the end of the set.

Update: Well at least i called 1 of the womens matches correctly! Wozniacki won 2-6,7-6, 7-6.

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