20:00 – Del Potro v Cilic
Rankings are 6 and 17. Head to head is 1-0 to Del Potro. That was in the OZ Open in January And went to 4 sets.
Del Potro is a strong favourite at 1.25 but Cilic showed against Murray that he is hitting the ball exceptionally well and this could be a good battle.
Our option are to either lay DP from the start and if Cilic can keep the 1st set close or even win it we can hedge for a profit. Or we can back DP on serve and wait for a 15-40 in his favour.
You could back DP from the start as i expect him to win the match but 1.25 is a poor value bet.
I think Cilic could nick a set here and has a chance of victory if Del Potro is even a little off his top form.
Update: Cilic took the first set so anyone laying DP from the start could take their profit. After that he broke serve early in the second set ( I think it was the first game ) and it looked like it was going to be his day. Then Del Potro did what Murray failed to do and took charge. he broke back to take the second set and it was one way traffic after that.
DP won 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1
Midnight – Gonzalez v Nadal
Rankings are 11 and 3. Head to heads are 6-3 to Nadal who has won their last 5 meetings without losing a set.
Gonzalez’ only hope today is that Nadal is struggling with fitness.. If he isnt then it will definately be the Spaniard who moves on to the semis.
Nadal is 1.34 on betfair. Both men have good stats on serve but Nadal is better when it comes to receiving. Back Nadal on serve and wait for 15-40’s in his favour.
Update: Rain stopped play. Nadal had won the first set tie break and they were part way through the second set tie break with Nadal slightly ahead. Resumes today…