For anyone following the betting tips ( link at the top of the blog) you have witnessed a remarkable recovery! The first week of April was a nightmare with some near misses and some very odd results and saw them -83.5 points down! I kept faith with my new selection process and a little over a week later they are now in profit 16 points. Even if I say so myself that’s one hell of a comeback.
One other interesting stat is that of the 32 picks the selection took the opening set in 26 of them ( 81% ).
There isn’t a great deal of value around today at starting prices.
Berdych has been complaining recently of being tired and pulled out of the Davis Cup team. He has never lost a set to Granollers but an SP of 1.13 looks too short. It would be a shock result if Granollers were to win but we have a good chance of seeing a higher price.
Raonic looked impressive against Benneteau in the last round. He showed he is much more than a serve robot. Today’s opponent Nieminen also looked very motivated in his last match but Troicki made his task a lot easier than it should have been.
They have met just once before which was in September last year and Nieminen took it in straight sets.
A stat I saw on Tennis Insight ( which I have checked) is that Nieminen has lost all 11 matches in his career where they were on clay and his price was above 3.00 . To be fair 7 of them were against top 10 opponents. The others were against Ferrero (ranked 21 at the time), Simon (when he used to be good), Almagro (20) and Monaco (24).
I expect Raonic to take this one but I think we will see a significantly higher price on him in the first set. 1.70+ is the target.
Almagro had a long week last week and also had the disappointment of losing the final in Houston to Isner. He looked a little disinterested in the first set yesterday against Goffin.
Melzer also had a terrible first set and managed to hold serve just once. He also came through the next 2 sets quite comfortably. I think he will increase his intensity as he is playing a top 10 player.
Almagro’s SP of 1.20 just looks too low and has to be worth a lay.