Wednesday 17th April 2013

For anyone following the betting tips ( link at the top of the blog) you have witnessed a remarkable recovery! The first week of April was a nightmare with some near misses and some very odd results and saw them -83.5 points down! I kept faith with my new selection process and a little over a week later they are now in profit 16 points. Even if I say so myself that’s one hell of a comeback.

One other interesting stat is that of the 32 picks the selection took the opening set in 26 of them ( 81% ).

 

There isn’t a great deal of value around today at starting prices.

Berdych has been complaining recently of being tired and pulled out of the Davis Cup team. He has never lost a set to Granollers but an SP of 1.13 looks too short. It would be a shock result if Granollers were to win but we have a good chance of seeing a higher price.

 

Raonic looked impressive against Benneteau in the last round. He showed he is much more than a serve robot. Today’s opponent Nieminen also looked very motivated in his last match but Troicki made his task a lot easier than it should have been.

They have met just once before which was in September last year and Nieminen took it in straight sets.

A stat I saw on Tennis Insight ( which I have checked) is that Nieminen has lost all 11 matches in his career where they were on clay and his price was above 3.00 . To be fair 7 of them were against top 10 opponents. The others were against Ferrero (ranked 21 at the time), Simon (when he used to be good), Almagro (20) and Monaco (24).

I expect Raonic to take this one but I think we will see a significantly higher price on him in the first set. 1.70+ is the target.

 

Almagro had a long week last week and also had the disappointment of losing the final in Houston to Isner. He looked a little disinterested in the first set yesterday against Goffin.

Melzer also had a terrible first set and managed to hold serve just once. He also came through the next 2 sets quite comfortably. I think he will increase his intensity as he is playing a top 10 player.

Almagro’s SP of 1.20 just looks too low and has to be worth a lay.

    Trading Guide

6 thoughts on “Wednesday 17th April 2013”

  1. Tradeshark once again thank you for these wonderful tips.

    Do you think Gulbis is a decent pick against Monaco? He has a decent SP of 1.90, but of course when an odd seems too good…

    Also because of his unreal form at the moment, of his last 23 games he has only lost 3, and they were to Nadal, Berdych and Del Potro. Of course in tennis these stats are worth what they are.

    The bummer is that I haven’t watched any of these players live in the past year or so, that’s why I would like a second opinion.

    Once again thanks 😉

    1. There wasn’t video for Monaco’s game yesterday but from the stats/pattern of points he played well after a slow start. If anything I would favour Monaco as long as he serves well. Very tough one to call.

      1. I think Monaco maybe got a tad lucky here.

        There’s a rumor going around that Gulbis was at the casinos last night – I think he needed a set to detox 🙂

        Anyway, I laid Pico at 1.10 after the 1st set before a Gulbis comeback and then another serious rage. Giving a game away by smashing the umpire’s chair doesn’t seem that smart to me.

        Still, Monaco was consistent enough to take advantage. Not sure he’ll beat any of the top guys though.

        Gulbis – always entertaining and always frustrating when in one of his moods!

        1. Yeah I read about the casino. I missed all the fun as only traded the first set. Had a rescue job to do on the IPL match and then had to collect part of my fence from the neighbour’s garden ( high winds here).

          Was just about to search youtube for the chair incident.

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